Forecast Trend Report by Period
Expectations that the CLARITY Act, a US digital-asset market structure bill, will advance are helping lift some altcoins. Still, analysts advise traders to stay selective and focus on tokens supported by fund flows rather than chasing sharp rallies, with declining stablecoin balances on exchanges and risks tied to tariffs and the Middle East still weighing on sentiment.
Bitcoin Rebound Lifts Some Altcoins, With RWA Strong and AI Weak
Bitcoin’s recent rebound also nudged major altcoins higher, including Ether (ETH, 2.1%) and XRP (2.9%). But the gains have not spread across the broader altcoin market, with individual tokens diverging sharply depending on project-specific catalysts and fund flows.
According to CoinMarketCap data on July 23, Ondo Finance (ONDO) posted the biggest gain among higher-market-cap tokens over the past week, rising 25.7%. The move appeared to reflect expectations for growth in the real-world asset, or RWA, market after the project highlighted plans to launch tokenized stocks and exchange-traded funds, along with an asset-tokenization partnership with Japan’s SBI Group. Pump.fun (PUMP, 17.8%), Ether.fi (ETHFI, 15.7%) and Hashflow (HASH, 14.8%) also posted double-digit gains.
Among mid-cap tokens, Build On B (B) surged 103%. About $5.66 million of B tokens recorded net outflows from exchanges over the past week, fueling expectations that potential selling pressure may ease. Talus (US), a Sui-based AI agent infrastructure project, climbed 39% over the same period as interest in AI agent-related projects drew buying. Kaito (KAITO, 23.2%) also rose alongside higher trading volume.
By contrast, DeXe (DEXE) plunged 87.5%, the steepest decline among mid-cap tokens. DeXe had earlier hit a record high on expectations for an AI agent integration upgrade, but later gave back most of those gains. The market has raised allegations of a possible smart-contract exploit and insider selling, though those claims have not been verified. The project has yet to issue an official statement. Backpack (BP, -12.4%) also weakened as profit-taking emerged after a recent rally.
Among smaller tokens, Lorenzo Protocol (BANK) soared 213%, the biggest gain among altcoins ranked within the top 300 by market capitalization. The token appears to have extended gains after breaking above a resistance level in mid-July, ending a months-long range and triggering short liquidations. DigiByte (DGB, 24.2%), ZAMA (22.4%) and Plume (PLUME, 15.4%) also advanced.
On the downside among small caps, meme coin CashCat (CASHCAT) tumbled 47.7%, marking the sharpest loss. Ansem (ANSEM, -18.8%) and Safe (SAFE, -15.4%) also fell sharply. In Ansem’s case, selling pressure appears to have intensified after heavy short-term sales by a large holder were detected.
By sector, RWA-related tokens outperformed, while AI and meme coins lagged. SoSoValue data showed the RWA sector index rose 4.67% over the past seven days and 12.8% over the past month. By contrast, the AI sector fell 23.5% over one month and 74.1% over one year. Meme coins dropped 21% and 75.9%, respectively, over the same periods, extending their weak trend.
Broad Altcoin Recovery Still Elusive as Traders Watch CLARITY Act and Ether
The altcoin market is attempting a recovery on hopes for progress on the CLARITY Act and Ether’s rebound. But the bounce has yet to spread across the market as shrinking stablecoin balances on exchanges and risks tied to tariffs and the Middle East continue to act as headwinds.
Expectations for the CLARITY Act have been a key recent driver of sentiment in the crypto market. Santiment, an on-chain analytics platform, said social-media mentions related to the bill hit a 10-week high and that market participants view it not merely as a policy issue but as a major force behind the recent rally. Passage of the bill could strengthen expectations for institutional inflows and a broader recovery in the US crypto industry. At the same time, Santiment said optimism has already been reflected in prices to a significant degree, meaning any delay or outcome that falls short of expectations could quickly trigger disappointment selling.
On market flows, some analysts argue the market still lacks enough fuel for a sustained advance. Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, said total crypto market capitalization stands at about $2.25 trillion, and a break above the previous peak of $2.27 trillion could open the way for a return to the $2.7 trillion level reached in May. He added that stablecoin outflows from exchanges remain a supply-demand constraint on further gains. As stablecoins leave exchanges, immediate buying power weakens.
Market participants are also watching Ether, the bellwether of the altcoin market. Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen said the market still has low social interest and a weak buying base, making it difficult to fully rule out a correction similar to 2018. If Bitcoin gives back gains in August and September, a key question will be whether Ether can hold up by making a higher high as it did in 2022 or break below support. The ETH/BTC pair has also repeatedly failed near its 20-month moving average. If concerns over rate hikes resurface, the altcoin market could face another correction.
A broader spillover from Ether’s rebound into small- and mid-cap tokens remains unclear. Altcoin Vector said Ether typically serves as the starting point for a shockwave that amplifies moves across altcoins, but the latest ignition pattern has already weakened. Ether is still leading the altcoin market, it said, but there is not yet clear evidence of enough traction to lift the sector as a whole.
External risks include US tariff policy and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Ahead of the expiration of a global 10% tariff measure on July 24, speculation is growing that the US may announce a new tariff plan covering about 60 countries under Section 301 of the Trade Act. Any adjustment to country-specific tariff rates could increase pressure on global trade and revive inflation concerns. If military tensions between the US and Iran, along with fears of shipping disruptions in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz, push international oil prices higher, expectations for rate cuts could recede and limit the altcoin market’s rebound.
Kang Min-seung, Bloomingbit reporter minriver@bloomingbit.io