19h10 ▪
6
min read ▪ by
Since early August, the market has moved within a narrow range, without direction. Bitcoin oscillates between 63,500 and 65,000 dollars, while data signals a slowdown in sales. Glassnode now observes signs of exhaustion among sellers, a phenomenon often associated with the final stages of a correction. However, the company remains cautious and does not yet confirm the formation of a lasting bottom. Between price stability and still-present institutional demand, the market is now waiting for a clearer signal.
In Brief
- Glassnode observes a seller exhaustion around 64,000 dollars, without confirming a lasting floor.
- 54.6% of the circulating Bitcoin supply is currently in profit.
- Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded 144.67 million dollars in outflows after five days of inflows.
- Sustained crossing of 65,000 dollars could become the next decisive signal for the market.
Bitcoin shows signs of running out of gas
Glassnode currently describes a “compressed” market rather than a market in capitulation. According to its analysis, sellers seem to be gradually losing their ability to push prices lower. This situation appears while the bitcoin price remains locked within a range of 63,500 to 65,000 dollars. Prices therefore evolve in a reduced space, with little direction since the beginning of the month.
On its side, Bitfinex data provide an additional element. According to its research service, 54.6% of the circulating supply is in profit. This level suggests that the average holder is near their break-even. Historically, this configuration has more often accompanied the end of corrections than their start, without guaranteeing an immediate reversal.
For Glassnode, current conditions remain fragile. Prices react strongly to market movements, while sellers show less strength. On-chain analysis thus provides a signal of fatigue, but not a confirmation of a trend change.
Institutional demand keeps the buying pressure alive
The behavior of bitcoin spot ETFs is another element in this consolidation phase. Funds recorded an outflow of 144.67 million dollars, after five consecutive days of inflows. This outflow contrasts with the previous dynamic. It is not enough to show that institutional demand has disappeared.
At the same time, bitcoin has maintained its price zone despite several significant sales. Transfers attributed to some whales and Strategy did not cause an immediate break. This resistance complements Glassnode’s signals. It mainly shows that buyers still respond to part of the supply.
Jasper De Maere, an OTC trader at Wintermute, nevertheless estimated that ETF purchases have no direct impact on BTC’s price and linked a possible recovery to breaking 65,000 dollars:
ETF purchases have certainly contributed to Bitcoin’s rise, but have not had a significant impact on its price. Marginal buyers in the spot market are therefore not genuine bullish investors. Bitcoin will thus need to break the 65,000 dollar mark in the short term to consolidate its recovery.
Source: Binance Square
According to this reading, bitcoin must exceed this threshold to reinforce the bullish scenario. As long as this condition is not met, seller exhaustion remains an indicator rather than a turning point. The market therefore keeps a waiting structure.
The $65K level holds the key to Bitcoin’s next big move
The next step will depend on buyers’ reaction around 65,000 dollars. A clear break would strengthen the recovery hypothesis mentioned by Wintermute. Conversely, a new rejection could show that the downtrend still has pressure capacity. In this context, buyers must still confirm their ability to regain control.
A previous Glassnode signal also puts this situation in a broader perspective. The previous year, the gradual reduction of loss-taking preceded a recovery. Several months were nevertheless necessary before confirmation of the signal provided by on-chain data. The parallel remains imperfect, especially since current price levels are about 10,000 dollars lower.
This comparison highlights an important limitation of current indicators. Seller exhaustion can accompany stabilization without immediately causing a rise. It will therefore still be necessary to sustainably break the identified resistance. Glassnode estimates that active sellers at the end of July and early August have largely consumed their potential but do not yet confirm a floor.
Two scenarios thus remain open. A break above 65,000 dollars could validate the momentum sought by buyers. A failure at this zone could prolong consolidation or open the way to a new lower test. The next evolution will therefore depend as much on price behavior as on the persistence of signals observed on the chain.
The BTC market is thus entering a phase where stability is no longer enough to confirm a reversal. The next moves around 65,000 dollars will measure demand and the return of sellers. As long as this resistance holds, data indicate a possible lull, but not yet a lasting bottom.
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La révolution blockchain et crypto est en marche ! Et le jour où les impacts se feront ressentir sur l’économie la plus vulnérable de ce Monde, contre toute espérance, je dirai que j’y étais pour quelque chose
DISCLAIMER
The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.