(Sept 6): Investors seeking to diversify beyond crowded AI trades in Korea and Japan are increasingly seizing on Chinese equity derivatives.
Trading desks from Barclays Plc to UBS Group AG are seeing rising client demand for bullish options and swap contracts tied to China’s CSI indices in recent weeks. Meanwhile, more strategists are recommending derivative trades to position for gains, particularly in the mid- and small-cap space.
Key drivers for Chinese stocks include ongoing capital‑market reforms that support a gradual bull market, advances in self‑reliant technology and an improving earnings outlook across hardware sectors, according to BNP Paribas SA and Bank of America Corp. In a recent report, UBS highlighted the CSI 500 as an alternative artificial intelligence bet for investors looking to diversify their exposure.
Yet even as optimism creeps back in, traders remain cautious about the nation’s economic outlook and government support. The CSI 1000 Index, up after posting its worst monthly loss since 2016 in July, is still 16% below its high in May. Meanwhile, implied volatility — the gauge of options prices — has slumped back toward its one-year average, making derivative bets more appealing.
“It’s an ideal trade now because people are a bit on edge,” said Lars Naeckter, head of Asia Pacific equity-derivatives research at Bank of America. He recommends call spreads on the CSI 1000. “Rather than piling into cash equities or futures, options make sense, especially when pricing is in your favour. At some point, a catalyst will emerge, and it is often cheaper to be tactically proactive ahead of a move rather than reactive.”
At Barclays, the desk is seeing rising client interest in call spreads on onshore indexes, with many positioning for a gradual climb rather than a sharp rally. Outperformance trades linked to the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices are also compelling versus recent history, according to Kaanhari Singh, the bank’s head of Asia Pacific equity-flow derivatives sales.
“We’ve seen growing investor interest in China A-share upside strategies in recent months,” Singh said. “Part of this reflects investors looking to diversify sources of equity returns as questions emerge around valuations and return expectations in some of the market’s most-crowded themes globally.”
Meanwhile, UBS’ sales and trading desk noted on Aug. 30 that the largest weekly derivatives flow in Asia came from bullish bets on China’s CSI indexes. It saw multiple sizeable requests for long swaps concentrated in the CSI 300 and CSI 500, along with upside option structures.
The growing importance of tech in Chinese indices is helping attract investors as the government pushes for the industry’s self-reliance, according to BNP Paribas. It’s become the highest-weighted sector for the CSI 300 Index, and it’s increased for the mid- and smaller-cap CSI 500 and CSI 1000 gauges.
In the US, on Friday a trader bought a huge block of bullish calls on the KraneShares CSI China Internet Fund, betting it would return to prices seen earlier this year.
“China onshore offers a very different exposure to AI due to nation’s own ecosystem. So there is a natural diversification compared to the global AI trade,” said Jason Lui, BNP Paribas’ head of Asia-Pacific equity and derivatives strategy. “Now, having that more well-contained volatility profile also encourages more medium-term asset allocation from both domestic and international institutional investors.”
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