Key issues:
- The Business Robustness Index increased from 26% to 27% between the first and second quarters of 2026;
- The Macroeconomic Environment Index rose from 55% to 58%, supported by aggregate demand, exchange-rate stability and interest-rate developments;
- The average loss per unit produced fell from 522 to 483 meticais, with revenues growing faster than costs;
- The price of diesel increased by around 46%, affecting industry, transport, agriculture and supply chains;
- Companies continue to face difficulties accessing foreign currency to import fuel, equipment, raw materials and other inputs;
- The Prime Rate of the financial system stands at 15.50%, before the application of risk spreads by commercial banks;
- The CTA calls for the resumption of CPMO+1 to improve dialogue between the Bank of Mozambique and the private sector.
The performance of Mozambican companies recorded a marginal recovery in the second quarter of 2026, with the Business Robustness Index rising from 26% to 27%, according to data presented by the Confederation of Economic Associations of Mozambique (CTA).
The one-percentage-point increase occurred during a period when the macroeconomic environment showed a relatively more favourable evolution, but companies continued to face difficulties with fuel supplies, access to foreign currency, financing and the functioning of supply chains.
The results were presented by CTA President Álvaro Massingue during the 22nd edition of the Economic Briefing, held on Thursday, 10 September, in Maputo, to assess business performance in the second quarter and the outlook for the coming months.
The indicator shows that the macroeconomic improvement is still reaching companies only to a limited extent. Rising operating costs, shortages of foreign currency and the State’s debts to suppliers continue to reduce companies’ production, investment and job-creation capacity.
Macroeconomic Environment rises to 58%
The Macroeconomic Environment Index increased from 55% in the first quarter to 58% in the second quarter of 2026.
According to the CTA, the increase was supported by a slight rise in aggregate demand, continued exchange-rate stability, moderate movements in the general price index and the trajectory of interest rates.
The acceleration of this indicator did not, however, produce a proportionate improvement in business robustness. While the macroeconomic environment advanced by three percentage points, the index measuring business performance grew by only one point.
The difference suggests that gains recorded in general indicators continue to be absorbed by operational constraints that directly affect productive activity.
The second quarter was also marked by the recovery from the effects of floods in Gaza and Maputo provinces. Damage to roads and other infrastructure affected the movement of people and goods, increasing logistics costs and supply times.
Loss per unit produced falls to 483 meticais
The average loss per unit produced fell from 522 to 483 meticais during the quarter.
According to the CTA, the reduction indicates that companies’ revenues grew at a faster rate than their costs. The agricultural marketing campaign and the relative stability of the metical contributed to this development.
Although the indicator remains negative, the decline in the unit loss signals an improvement in the relationship between operating revenues and expenses.
The persistence of average losses nevertheless shows that a considerable proportion of companies have not yet reached sufficient levels of productivity, prices or sales volumes to fully cover production costs.
This situation reduces their capacity to reinvest, limits the hiring of workers and weakens companies’ financial position vis-à-vis banks and suppliers.
Higher diesel prices increase costs across economy
Fuel supply was identified by the CTA as the most immediate problem faced by the business sector during the period.
The price of diesel increased by around 46%, in a context also marked by shortages in supply. The impact extended to industry, agriculture, transport and the distribution of goods.
Diesel accounts for a significant share of the cost structure of the Mozambican economy, owing to its dependence on road transport and the use of generators by companies facing limitations in electricity supply.
The increase in its price raises the cost of transporting raw materials, moving agricultural produce, operating machinery and distributing goods to markets.
Some of these costs tend to be incorporated into final prices, affecting households’ purchasing power and reducing demand available to businesses themselves.
The CTA considers that the normalisation of fuel supplies will be crucial to sustaining the recovery in business activity in the coming months.
Foreign-currency shortages constrain production
Difficulties accessing foreign currency continued to limit companies’ ability to import raw materials, equipment, spare parts, fuel and other inputs required for production.
Even in a context of relative exchange-rate stability, the effective availability of foreign currency remains a problem for companies.
The nominal stability of the metical does not eliminate the economic impact of insufficient foreign currency. When companies are unable to make international payments on time, they face delays in orders, production interruptions and additional costs with suppliers.
The CTA warned that shortages of raw materials reduce production and undermine exports and the continuity of jobs.
The private sector is therefore calling for greater predictability in the functioning of the foreign-exchange market and management that takes the needs of productive activities into account.
Credit remains expensive for companies
The cost of financing remains high, despite the cumulative reduction in the Bank of Mozambique’s monetary policy rate.
The Prime Rate of the financial system stands at 15.50%, before the addition of risk spreads applied by commercial banks. In practice, the rates charged to companies remain above this level.
For the CTA, the reduction in benchmark rates should result in more effective transmission to the real economy, making credit progressively less costly.
The high cost of financing limits the acquisition of equipment, the strengthening of working capital, the expansion of facilities and companies’ entry into new markets.
The business organisation is also concerned about the crowding-out effect on credit to the private sector. Increased domestic public borrowing absorbs resources from the financial system and makes government securities an attractive alternative for banks compared with lending to companies.
This situation reduces the share of credit available for production and may weaken the business response even when macroeconomic indicators show improvement.
State debts affect business liquidity
The accumulation of State debts to the private sector remains among the factors constraining companies’ liquidity.
When public payments are made late, suppliers face difficulties meeting salaries, taxes, bank instalments and commitments to other operators.
The problem tends to spread through the business chain. A company that does not receive payment from the State may also delay payments to its own suppliers, amplifying liquidity difficulties in the private sector.
The CTA also includes bureaucracy and deteriorating roads among the factors increasing the cost of doing business in Mozambique.
Reducing State arrears, regularly maintaining infrastructure and simplifying administrative procedures are presented as necessary conditions for improving business performance.
CTA wants dialogue to resume after monetary decisions
Photo: CTA
The CTA is calling for the resumption of the Expanded Monetary Policy Committee, known as CPMO+1, a dialogue mechanism between the Bank of Mozambique and the private sector following meetings of the Monetary Policy Committee.
The meeting allowed the central bank to present the reasons underlying its decisions and clarify businesspeople’s questions about the conduct of monetary and foreign-exchange policies.
The organisation considers greater coordination between monetary, fiscal, foreign-exchange and financial policies necessary, as well as more predictable communication with economic agents.
For the private sector, predictability is essential for making investment decisions, organising imports, negotiating financing and undertaking long-term commitments.
The resumption of this mechanism could reduce the gap between the central bank’s assessment of economic conditions and companies’ experience in accessing foreign currency and credit.
Agriculture and gas underpin recovery expectations
The CTA anticipates a continuation of the moderate recovery in business activity in the coming months.
The outlook is supported by the possible normalisation of fuel supplies, the agricultural marketing campaign and the intensification of activities linked to natural gas projects in the Rovuma Basin.
The resumption of major projects could stimulate demand for transport, construction, food, accommodation, maintenance, professional services and other supplies.
The scale of the impact on Mozambican companies will be influenced by their ability to meet quality, scale, financing and certification requirements, as well as by the local-content policies adopted by operators.
Risks associated with volatility in international fuel prices and geopolitical tensions nevertheless persist. An increase in oil prices to levels close to or above US$100 per barrel could create further increases in domestic energy and transport costs.
The second-quarter indicators therefore point to business activity in recovery, but still some way from a position of robustness. The increase from 26% to 27% shows that macroeconomic stabilisation needs to be accompanied by greater availability of fuel and foreign currency, lower credit costs, payment of State debts and improved operating conditions for companies.
Source: O Económico