A short squeeze just blasted XRP back above $1.50, but the move that got it there may be the same force that stops it from going further. One price level now stands between XRP and $1.60, and the clock is…
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XRP (CRYPTO:XRP) is trading at $1.51, up 7.6% in just 24 hours and back above $1.50 for the first time since the Senate blocked the CLARITY Act on September 15. Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) is at $85,967, up 6.1%, lifting the entire market, with XRP riding the wave.
However, looking back over the week, the gains appear minimal. XRP is up only 0.4% this week, down 2.2% over the last 30 days, down 18% for the year from its December 31, 2025, closing price of $1.84, and about half of what it was a year ago. With the XRP price now trading at $1.50, can it reach $1.60?
XRP Reclaimed $1.50 on a Short Squeeze
The rally started with Bitcoin surging past $84,000 and over $85,000 in a single day, leading exchanges to liquidate about $300 million in short positions within just one hour. A short liquidation occurs when exchanges buy back a coin for a trader whose bet on a price drop has been exhausted, causing a price increase as more forced purchases happen.
XRP experienced a stronger move compared to Bitcoin due to an overcrowded short position. For over a week, XRP’s funding rate, the fee traders pay each other on perpetual futures to maintain the contract price near the market price, had been negative. This situation meant that short traders were paying long traders to keep their positions open. Once Bitcoin started its upward move, XRP faced many short positions that needed to be unwound, fueling the $300 million buying spree.
The buying that pushed XRP above $1.50 was essentially driven by other traders’ losses, and this buying pressure may stop as soon as the short positions are cleared. XRP dropped 8% on September 15 when the Senate vote failed and then moved between $1.33 and $1.41 for four days before the short squeeze lifted it. Ripple hasn’t made any announcements since the vote, so the current rise has simply returned what the failed vote took away.
$1.55 Decides Whether $1.60 Is the Next Target for XRP
From its current price of $1.51, resistance levels are at $1.52 (less than 1% away), then $1.55 (about 3% away), and finally $1.60 (around 6% away). The crucial level is $1.55. XRP hasn’t closed above this price since August, and until it does, $1.60 remains just a number in discussions rather than a real target on the chart.
If XRP slips, the first support level is $1.44 (approximately 5% below the current price), followed by the 200-day moving average at $1.35, and then $1.30. The 200-day moving average is important because prices above it generally encourage buying, while prices below can lead to selling. The 50-day moving average is moving up towards the 200-day average, but the anticipated “golden cross,” when the shorter average crosses above the longer one, hasn’t happened yet.
For reference, the January 6 high of $2.36 is 56% above the current price, while XRP closed in June at $1.05. Thus, the XRP price has risen 44% this quarter, even though the past week has seen little movement. For XRP to reach $1.60, it needs a positive shift this week.
XRP’s Three Paths into the September 30 Quarter Close
Three potential scenarios emerge as we approach the September 30 quarterly close.
- The First Path. XRP reaches $1.60 by September 30. This requires Bitcoin to stay above $85,000, the short squeeze to continue with more spot buying, and XRP to close above $1.55 for a day. A potential boost could come from an upgrade to the XRP Ledger, which validators have been voting on since July. If it activates before the quarter ends, it could help in the last couple of trading sessions.
- The Second Path. In this baseline scenario, the funding rates return to normal after shorts are cleared, the forced buying stops, and XRP’s price settles between $1.50 and $1.55, with returns remaining flat. This is the shape of the current situation following the vote—a classic aftermath of a short squeeze with no continuous buyer support.
- The Third Path. If XRP closes below $1.44, it suggests that the rally was solely due to short covering and could lead to a decline below $1.41, opening the door to the 200-day average at $1.35. Additionally, Ripple’s scheduled monthly release of one billion XRP on October 1 could weigh on the price during an already shaky week.
In conclusion, the next moves for XRP depend on both broader market trends and specific XRP-related developments.
Can XRP Reach $1.60 After Reclaiming $1.50?
It’s unlikely that XRP will hit $1.60 by September 30. The chances decrease the longer we go without a catalyst. Right now, XRP is just 6% away from $1.60 but hasn’t closed above $1.55, the key level in between, since August. The buying that pushed it to $1.51 was driven by short covering. If Bitcoin holds steady above $85,000, that keeps possibilities open, and a daily close above $1.55 could help XRP move toward $1.60. Without that close, the XRP price is likely to stay between $1.50 and $1.5
The risk of chasing $1.60 now is that the short squeeze may not continue. If XRP closes above $1.55 before September 30, then $1.60 could be within reach, followed by the $1.70 August high. However, if it closes below $1.44, it suggests that the recent price movement was simply short covering, bringing the next level down to $1.35. Then, the escrow release on October 1 will come into play during a declining price phase. For anyone holding XRP, the key level to watch is $1.55, which will clarify the situation.
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