June WTI crude oil holding near $100 a barrel is not a background detail here. That level keeps inflation risk alive and makes it very hard for the Fed to sound relaxed today. That keeps the pressure on metals through the rate channel. At the same time, energy costs running this hot can lift long-term inflation expectations and that gives silver some support as a hedge. The problem is that argument plays out slowly and today is not a slow day.
What I’m Watching
Volatility is coming either way and I want to know the levels before it gets here. A softer Fed tone catches short sellers off guard and the move higher can be fast. A firm message keeps control with the sellers and raises the risk of another leg lower. The Fed gives you the direction today. The charts give you the levels. Know both before the announcement hits.