Hedge-fund chief Spencer Hakimian says a U.S.–China tariff resolution could arrive soon, arguing that markets and the White House are signaling an about-face on tariffs.
What Happened: “I think there’s an imminent de-escalation with China coming,” he wrote on X, outlining four red-flag clues.
Inventory clock Is Ticking
Hakimian warns the United States is “just weeks away from a full collapse of our economy without Chinese inventory.” Trans-Pacific sailings that once took 17 days now average five to seven weeks, leaving retailers little slack if shipments stay frozen, reveals an Investor’s report.
Trump’s Tariff Talk Whipsaws
On Wednesday, President Donald Trump vowed he “would not budge” on Beijing duties. Twenty-four hours later, aides floated cutting the headline 145% levy by more than half, speaking to Reuters, a move insiders say could emerge from talks in Switzerland this weekend.
Déjà vu In The Stock Market
Hakimian notes that Trump’s X post urging investors to “buy stocks today” echoes a similar call hours before the April 9, 90-day tariff pause that sent the S&P 500 to record highs.
Risk-on Tape Backs Him Up
According to Reuters, Bitcoin (USD/ BTC) is up 15% in a month, oil has climbed 9%, and gold prices have slumped as haven trades unwind. Treasury yields, meanwhile, are spiking. “Really seems like the major market participants … know what is coming,” Hakimian wrote.
Why It Matters: While White House advisors are certain that Trump’s ‘liberation day’ tariffs have only signaled positives for the market, economists like Peter Schiff believe that tariffs are chasing foreign capital out of U.S. assets and could spark a deeper financial crisis.
Meanwhile, economist Mohamed A. El-Erian has highlighted potential “adverse implications” for domestic industries following a surprisingly strong surge in China’s exports for April. Reports suggest that the escalating trade war with China is also triggering a negative response among young voters, who were instrumental in Trump’s election success.
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