Nate Silver Sees Convention Bounce Nearly Doubling Kamala Harris’ Lead Vs. Donald Trump: Here’s Why He Expects Vice President’s Lead To Increase Further

Robert Kennedy Jr. formally announced Friday his decision to suspend his campaign and back Donald Trump. He also said he would remove his name form the ballot in 10 battleground states. But famed polling data analyst Nate Silver says the election continues to trend toward Kamala Harris despite this development.

What Happened: Kennedy’s name will be on the ballot in many other red and blue states and his swing state efforts may not be entirely successful, said Silver on his Silver Bulletin Substack on Saturday. Silver said that it may be too late for Kennedy to call it quits in swing states such as Wisconsin and North Carolina.

In North Carolina, the first state to begin early voting, Kennedy’s name has already been physically printed on the ballots in around 30 counties, Silver noted.

On Silver’s national polling average, both Harris and Trump have both improved, from 48% to 48.8% for Harris and from 43.7% to 44.8% for Trump.

Citing the most recent update to his model, Silver said Harris has begun to see a convention bounce. Even with the Kennedy exit, Harris was now ahead by four points to the national average versus her 2.3 points lead when the Democratic National Convention started.

“Our best guess is that her lead will increase further, especially given that almost none of the polling was done after her strong acceptance speech on Thursday,” Silver said.

“Harris is at around 53 percent to win the Electoral College, the same as in recent days,” he added.

See Also: Scaramucci Blown Away By Kamala Harris’ DNC Speech, Questions Whether Trump Is ‘American Putin’ With His Divisive Approach

What’s Next: Despite having the momentum in her favor, Harris has several hurdles ahead. Anthony Scaramucci, who briefly served as White House Communications Director under Trump, said this week that Harris has been in the race for more than 30 days without addressing questions from the media. She is yet to parry questions regarding many policy issues including fracking and tax on unrealized capital gains, he added

Polling analytics firm Gallup said the next major test would be the Sept. 10 debate, as it would be important in determining whether opinions of her improve, stay the same or worsen in the final months of the presidential campaign.

Economist and former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers said in an interview with Bloomberg on Friday that if Harris were to be elected, the broader economic strategy is going to be one that is all about opportunity. Those opposing her have taken potshots at her proposal for clamping down on price gouging, and her plan to tax unrealized capital gains, which they say would deter long-term holding strategy.

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