Silver Treads Water Ahead of Inflation Report
Friday’s trading has been quiet, with silver nearly flat as investors await the release of February’s PCE inflation reportFebruary’s PCE inflation report. Forecasts call for a 0.4% monthly increase in core inflation and a 2.7% year-over-year gain—figures strong enough to keep the Fed on hold and limit hopes for near-term rate cuts. However, traders are cautious, recognizing that today’s PCE data may underrepresent the inflation risks now brewing from newly announced U.S. tariffs.
Tariffs Add Inflation Tailwinds, Fed Remains Cautious
Silver’s outlook is increasingly tied to the inflation narrative playing out across the broader market. President Trump’s reciprocal tariff plans, set to take effect April 2, are widely expected to boost import prices. Economists estimate the inflation impact could exceed a full percentage point. While some Fed officials anticipate a temporary spike, others warn of longer-lasting pressure, adding uncertainty to rate policy decisions.
The Federal Reserve continues to face conflicting signals—moderate growth, firm consumer spending, and climbing inflation expectations. While recent CPI figures suggested cooling price growth, PCE forecasts imply the Fed has little room to ease. Fed speakers have described the business environment as stalled, with visibility clouded by policy risk and weak consumer sentiment.
