In our last update, we spoke about a potential Wave 5 thrust unfolding within a leading diagonal pattern toward the 88K–90K zone. But what followed took even seasoned Elliotticians by surprise.
The market did not halt at the expected 88K–90K resistance. Instead, sideways consolidation between 86K and 83K from 13th to 21st April acted as a strong launchpad, laying the groundwork for an aggressive upside move. The result? A sharp rally that’s giving a hard time to the bears—Bitcoin almost manifested 90K before market consensus kicked in!
Pattern Reconfirmed with a Twist
While the leading diagonal structure still stands, it came with a small tweak. Instead of a traditional retracement at the completion of Wave 5, we saw a tight sideways range form just below 86K post completing the leading diagonal structure (modified) which worked as an accumulation phase. The bulls didn’t wait—they roared back, and the breakout followed.
Are We at the Start of a Much Bigger Move?
The recent rally is not just isolated to crypto. India’s Nifty, S&P 500, and global indices are all flashing similar bullish signs—possibly a cascading effect triggered by Bitcoin’s breakout. Could this be the start of the next wave toward 100K, 109K, or even 120K?
We hinted at this possibility in our earlier updates. The foundation laid at 74K–75K, followed by a clean push toward 95K, is confirming the strength of the move.
Wave A of a Triangle: The Next Pause?
While correcting from the 109K highs in early Jan 2025, the structure unfolded a triangular Wave A near 95K (precisely 95,032). This level may now act as short-term resistance. A drop below 93K could push Bitcoin lower, with the next key support between 88,250 and 88,000. If this zone holds, bulls may look to re-enter.
But here’s a caution—failure to hold above the 88K–87,750 zone may lead to a test of the 83K–86K support. A sustained break below 83K would raise serious doubts about the entire rally structure from 74K–75K to 95K, and a deeper review will be necessary.
Key Levels to Watch:
- 74K–75K Zone: Remains the long-term base. A break here could signal trend reversal.
- 83K–86K Zone: Crucial short-term support. Breach of this zone may invalidate the recent bullish structure.
- 88K–90K Zone: Previously a breakout zone, now a minor support level.
- 93K–95K Zone: Current resistance zone.
- 100K–109K–120K Zone: Next major upside targets if the bullish momentum continues.
Conclusion: Bitcoin’s Move – A Global Cue?
If the structure continues to unfold as anticipated, Bitcoin may be setting the tone for global risk assets, including equity markets like India’s Nifty—which is eyeing a breakout above 25,000, with a potential target of 26,277+.
Let’s stay alert. As always in Elliott Wave, every move is part of a bigger puzzle.
WaveTalks will keep connecting the dots as Market Whispers! Can you hear them?
