Rachel Reeves will present her Spring Statement next Wednesday. Attempts to play down the significance of the occasion have been hampered by political pressure, economic changes, and the government’s own fiscal rules. The government insists there will be no tax rises in the statement – it is instead focusing on welfare cuts, to the dismay of its natural supporters – but the backdrop is as uncertain as ever. GDP growth remains stagnant, and government bond yields have been climbing, just as those in Europe have done in expectation of greater defence spending.
There are unlikely to be any rabbits produced from the hat. Mooted changes to the cash Isa regime have also reportedly been pushed back, if indeed they ever happen. But the freezing of income tax thresholds – a tax rise by another name – may be extended further.
Some are more optimistic. The UK will not be immune to increased uncertainty in the US, but it may be cast in a better light by comparison. Deutsche Bank economists said this month that there is a “budding sense of optimism about the UK” among its US clients.
Monday 24 March
Euro area: Composite, manufacturing & services PMIs (preliminary)
Japan: Manufacturing & services PMIs (preliminary)
UK: Composite, manufacturing & services PMIs (preliminary)
US: Chicago Fed activity index, composite, manufacturing & services PMIs (preliminary)
Tuesday 25 March
Japan: BoJ minutes
US: Consumer confidence, Dallas Fed manufacturing, house prices, Richmond Fed manufacturing
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Wednesday 26 March
Japan: Leading economic index
UK: CPI inflation, RPI inflation, Spring Statement
Thursday 27 March
Euro area: M3 money supply
US: Goods trade balance, Kansas Fed manufacturing, Q4 GDP, wholesale inventories
Friday 28 March
Euro area: Consumer confidence, industrial confidence
UK: Current account, Q4 GDP, retail sales, trade balance
US: Michigan consumer sentiment, PCE inflation
