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Tuesday, August 16, 2022

Enough for a bottom? – The Reformed Broker

ONE: Oil is now way off its high. For now, at least. We may have seen the maximum intensity of the Russia-driven commodity price spike in wheat and fuel.

TWO: Now China issues a press release at 4 o’ clock in the morning east coast, perfectly timed for the US financial media to get the story out in the pre-market. They want to resolve all of their differences with US regulators and put in a bottom for their giant tech stocks. Probably saw too much bleeding of foreign capital from their own local markets plus Hong Kong. Playing footsie with the Russian tyrant hasn’t helped matters. This feels Come to Jesus-y to me. Either way, a welcome turn in the story.

THREE: Fed Chair Powell does his long awaited first rate hike of the cycle today. Finally. He’s been rehearsing for this in the mirror all year. He sings all of the right lyrics about inflation, vigilance, patience, data dependency while hitting all the right notes. Nothing new to get nervous about. We don’t like new words, we like the expected words, delivered in the same order, with as little variation as possible. He knows. Shorts cover on the lack of a shock, some cash on the sidelines comes back as extreme negative sentiment unwinds a bit. Growth stocks that have lost half their value catch a bid, buybacks are humming beneath the surface for all the SPX 100 names.

Is that enough? In the short-term it might be. Maybe not enough for new highs, but possibly enough to stave off a cut below the late February invasion lows. We’ll take it. Everyone could use a few moments in the corner and some vaseline above their eye.

***

I’ll be on CNBC’s new show at 4pm today right at the bell. It’s called Closing Bell Overtime, hosted by the one and only Scott Wapner. I’m not sure of the format or how much I’ll get to say, we’ll see what happens. Tune in then! 

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