The global tokenised asset market could grow at least 158-fold over the next four-and-a-half years, reaching US$2.7 trillion by 2030 in a bear-case scenario, driven largely by the tokenisation of US equities and Treasuries.
In its new report, Tokenisation 2030, Citi estimated the current global tokenised asset market at approximately US$17 billion and said the tokenisation of financial assets is finally moving beyond the pilot phase towards operational deployment.
US Treasury bills, bonds and money market funds (MMFs) currently account for more than 55 per cent of the market, followed by gold and commodities.
“After years of slow progress held back by regulatory uncertainty, fragmented infrastructure and the absence of on-chain settlement money, adoption is now accelerating,” the report, released on 2 June, said.
Citi Institute forecasts the tokenised asset market will reach US$5.5 trillion under its base-case scenario by 2030, rising to US$8 trillion in a bull case.
Previous waves of tokenisation struggled to scale due to regulatory uncertainty, limited secondary market liquidity, fragmented infrastructure and the lack of regulated on-chain cash.
According to Citi, the next phase of growth will be led by public market securities – particularly US equities and Treasuries – rather than private markets, where adoption remains at an early stage and faces structural constraints.
Broadridge chief product and strategy officer German Soto Sanchez, who contributed to the report, said institutional adoption was beginning to gain traction, particularly in repo and collateral markets.
“But broader adoption will depend on liquidity, participation, and more aligned infrastructure and regulation,” Sanchez wrote.
Citi identified three key drivers behind the current wave of adoption: financial market infrastructure providers integrating tokenisation into issuance and workflow processes; the expansion of regulated on-chain money and tokenised deposits; and improving regulatory clarity in major jurisdictions.
While asset managers have launched tokenised funds for several years, systemic financial market infrastructure firms are now moving towards tokenised offerings, including the NYSE and Nasdaq.
“You’re seeing the full weight of American financial power and the global reserve currency moving on-chain at scale. When DTCC and the NYSE embed tokenization into capital markets, this marks a tipping point,” Consensys global head of institutional business David Cunningham said.
Citi noted that these organisations are not crypto-native companies promoting blockchain technology, but rather “some of the oldest and largest financial institutions adopting new infrastructure”.
Despite the optimistic forecasts, Citi warned the transition would be gradual and potentially complex.
“Hybrid models – where tokenized and legacy systems operate in parallel – are expected to dominate in the near term. This is likely to introduce operational complexity before efficiency gains are fully realised. Interoperability across platforms, standards and settlement assets remains a prerequisite for scale.”
The report said adoption remains uneven across asset classes and jurisdictions, constrained by interoperability issues, legal frameworks, liquidity coordination, investor behaviour and established market conventions.
“As with previous infrastructure shifts, the benefits of tokenisation are likely to accrue gradually rather than immediately,” the report said.
“Institutions will seek to integrate issuance, trading and settlement at scale within regulated frameworks and existing client relationships, since control of these layers can drive a larger share of the transaction lifecycle.”
Citi also identified an emerging reconfiguration of capital markets, as institutions increasingly seek control over both asset issuance and settlement infrastructure. As a result, traditional post-trade intermediaries could face mounting pressure as settlement becomes faster and more automated.
“The convergence of tokenised assets with on-chain money underpins the future of finance: on chain finance, where settlement, collateral management and liquidity flows operate in real time and across borders based on ‘atomic settlement’”.
The report said growing demand from digitally native investors could further accelerate adoption, as younger investors increasingly expect 24/7 access to financial markets. Equities, bonds and commodities are among the asset classes expected to move on-chain in response.
“The tokenisation of financial assets is more than just technology; it is unlocking Wall Street for the digitally-native generation,” Citi client business development head of enterprise digital assets Artem Korenyuk said.
Aptos Labs chief business officer Solomon Tesfaye said momentum behind tokenised public equities and other liquid assets is accelerating as regulation becomes clearer and market infrastructure matures.
“Exchanges, brokerages and fintech platforms are converging on 24×7 blockchain infrastructure,” he said in the report.
Citi forecasts tokenisation will account for 10 per cent of the US Treasury bill market and 5 per cent of MMFs by 2030. The bank also expects around 3 per cent of the US public equity market to be tokenised by the end of the decade.
However, Alphaparty Capital founder and chief executive Rob de Rozario believes adoption could be far more extensive, predicting up to 50 per cent of public equities could be tokenised in some markets by 2030.
“Convenience, not just speed, will drive adoption. If it’s easier to access and use, people will come.”
Citi also projects approximately US$100 billion in tokenised private credit and US$100 billion in tokenised private equity exposure globally by 2030.
“We assume approximately $200 billion of tokenized real estate exposure globally by 2030, equivalent to roughly 1 per cent of the projected $17 trillion real estate fund market,” the report said.
T. Rowe Price head of digital asset strategy Blue Macellari said one of the most compelling use cases for large diversified asset managers is the automation of multi-asset and target-date fund portfolio management.
“Tokenisation can streamline the incredibly onerous workflow of rebalancing and creating these complex products.
“From an implementation standpoint, tokenisation is increasingly viewed as a commoditised capability. Partnering with external providers allows firms to retain flexibility and avoid lock-in to proprietary systems that may not align with emerging industry standards,” Macellari said.