March’s local real estate activity indicated a relatively balanced market for both Sarasota and Manatee counties, but changing national and international dynamics could call that stability into question.
The Realtor Association of Sarasota and Manatee’s March report noted continued stability in the Sarasota and Manatee real estate markets, with steady single-family home activity and a strong presence of cash buyers tilting the overall trend slightly in favor of buyers. But as international economic headwinds shift following President Donald Trump’s imposition of his tariff policies, and other countries’ retaliation, the market could shift in the coming months.
Trump’s aggressive international trade strategy with waves of tariffs on imported goods have thrown the global economy into uncertainty, with the International Monetary Fund projecting growth will slow in the U.S. and around the world in response. Consequently, metrics like the 10-year Treasury yield have seen dramatic swings, with figures as low as 3.9% April 4 shooting to 4.6% April 11.
The Treasury yield, which is the interest rate that the U.S. government pays on its debts, can be a benchmark for the state of the economy and how lenders will price home loans. It’s mostly fallen this year, which indicates investors expect slower growth, but it spiked in early April as investor anxiety surrounding the tariffs led to a rapid selling of assets.
Robert Goldman, a Realtor with Michael Saunders and Company and a former real estate attorney, said the changes to the yield reflect fears of inflation from Trump’s tariff maneuvers.
“The investors got jittery,” Goldman said. “Everybody’s really getting concerned that these tariffs are going to create inflation.”
As the yield, which now hovers around 4.3%, has been in flux, mortgage interest rates have acted accordingly. The average interest rate on a 30-year mortgage rate of 6.81% right now is down from 6.83% the week of April 14, according to the Associated Press, but it’s still close to the highest it’s been in two months. The figure indicates lenders perceive high risk with the lingering uncertainty.
How the changing rates will affect home sale activity remains to be seen, but prior to the latest batch of tariffs Trump introduced at the beginning of the month, sales across the U.S. were up. The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development reported a sale rate of 724,000 for single-family homes in March — up 7.4% from February and 6% from March 2024.
Sarasota and Manatee counties saw similar, though more extreme, activity during the month of March, according to the monthly report from the Realtors Association of Sarasota and Manatee. In Sarasota County, single-family home sales rose 38.7% from February, and they rose 33.6% in Manatee.
The two counties diverged in year-over-year changes in sales activity and median sale price. In Sarasota County, this March’s sales were 13% higher than March of 2024, though median sale price fell 8.8% to $469,450 compared with a year ago. However, Manatee County saw an 8.5% decrease in home sales from the same time last year, with median sale price up 1.5% to $506,317 — the area’s highest since last June.
National mortgage rates, according to Fortune, could remain high even if Trump’s insistence that the Federal Reserve cut back interest rates comes to fruition. At worst, drops in local activity like the decreased Manatee County sales could indicate fear from buyers and sellers alike, Goldman said.
High mortgage rates, he said, could send potential buyers to the sidelines, and sellers may hesitate to put their home on the market and make major life changes amid global economic chaos.
“Like deer in the headlights,” Goldman said. “The worst thing for economics is uncertainty.”
But, according to the Realtors association, the March figures still indicate a balanced market that’s continuing to find its footing as pandemic-fueled demand surges taper off. Though the region is still growing, the rate of expansion has slowed, resulting in a persistent cooling trend that’s yielded some of the highest inventory of homes the area’s seen in years.
Goldman, too, said the local market remains balanced. Even as the tariffs issue looms, he said slowing regional activity is less a sign of market stagnation and more a return to form. He remains optimistic that an easing of Trump’s tariffs would restore local and national market confidence.
In the meantime, Goldman is advising local buyers and sellers to consult the data before making decisions in a panic. He said it’s unlikely that home sales will dry up completely, especially as the Sarasota region remains a hotspot for population growth.
“Let’s not proceed according to our feelings and what we feel, but what we know,” Goldman said. “Let’s let the head move the heart.”
Contact Herald-Tribune Reporter Heather Bushman at hbushman@gannett.com. Follow her on Twitter @hmb_1013.
