The rose-tinted sunshades were off at this year’s 25,000-delegate MIPIM on the French Riviera as delegates battled unseasonal downpours to take the temperature of the global real estate industry.
And while overall confidence in real estate investment was up on last year’s more ambiguous outlook at the annual set piece event in Cannes, the hangover of ongoing war in Ukraine and U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs never seemed far away.
More positive real estate sentiment was backed by new figures from Savills that showed European investment volumes on track to hit €50B for the first quarter, up 28% on the same period last year. If continued, that would extrapolate to a 13% increase for 2025 and an overall €216B in transactions for the year.
Yet the recurring theme was that while global investors had started turning their attention to Europe once again, the continent’s uneasy relationship with Trump to the west and Russian President Vladimir Putin to the east meant the storm clouds gathering over the Mediterranean during MIPIM were a timely metaphor for the next 12 months in Europe.
Confidence was higher than last year, with investors predicting a stronger transactional market.
“We know things have now changed. It’s a wake-up call, and it may mean a new cold war. However, at least that is a more stable backdrop,” said Beatrice Guedj, Swiss Life Asset Managers France head of research and innovation.
If a U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine can be achieved, it will provide more market stability, she said.
It is hard to find stability in such a volatile world, however. CPP Investments Global Head of Real Estate Sophie van Oosterom said that Asian and U.S. investors may view real estate investment in Europe as riskier given the conflict in Ukraine, although she added that the turmoil also presented an opportunity for the continent to redefine its future.
“I don’t think we see it that way in Europe, but certainly U.S. and Asian investors are asking those questions,” she said of the deteriorating relationship with Russia.
Singapore-based James Young, head of investor services for EMEA and APAC for Cushman & Wakefield, predicted that Asian Pacific investors will target Europe again, with industrial and logistics, the living sector — especially student accommodation — and data centres particularly attractive.
Young said that several Asia-based investors are “on the cusp” of deploying capital in the European market again after a period of low activity, given the lower interest rate environment that has developed over the last 12 months, and could also be attracted by value-add office opportunities and retail, in which there is renewed interest.
“While we can’t ignore the geopolitical situation, I think most investors are going to be looking beyond short-term issues towards the fundamentals of real estate for opportunities, and it is broadly the same asset classes that are doing well in the APAC region that are appealing in Europe,” he said.
He predicted that APAC investors would increasingly consider opportunities both for modern commercial real estate stock and older assets that could be refurbished or repurposed.
The Urban Land Institute also warned real estate leaders to brace for another challenging year with lingering inflation, geopolitical instability and persistently higher interest rates in some regions potentially delaying a recovery in capital markets.
In its Emerging Trends in Real Estate Global Outlook 2025, produced with PwC and launched at MIPIM, the ULI highlighted political risk as an overarching industry concern, particularly concerning how policy and legislative decisions will influence monetary policy, economic growth and the continuing impacts of global conflicts and disputes.
“Wider geopolitical risks with potential monetary and macroeconomic knock-on effects will lead to ongoing uncertainty for real estate investors and managers, and this calls for continued caution,” ULI Europe CEO Lisette van Doorn said.
But there was also some optimism that the industry is close to ending a three-year journey to recovery and a view that 2025 may commence a new cycle, although there remained caution on the pace of recovery.
Storm clouds over Cannes as political turmoil dominated investor thinking.
AEW Europe CEO Rob Wilkinson said that concerns over political and economic uncertainties were likely to be replaced by increasing confidence as 2025 progressed, boosted by likely drops in interest rates.
“The macroeconomic environment will continue to cause some caution among investors. However, we expect to see a gradual improvement in sentiment as the year goes on and interest rates stabilise and come down,” he said.
“This will be helpful for real estate markets, and we are beginning to see greater activity and momentum. After three years of challenging market conditions, I have no doubt that the focus will be on the expectation of a better 2025 than 2024.”
However, while Nicole Pötsch, head of north and central Europe and co-head of European investment at Pimco Prime Real Estate, said she expects recovery, she said the expectation is cautious.
“We don’t expect them to come out of the gates very quickly. It will take time, but it’s about being very selective, agile and strategic in choosing the regions, sectors and individual assets.”
When debating the merits of different countries in which to invest, particularly in Europe, much of the discussion centred on the continent’s largest economy, Germany.
An economic slowdown, an overhang of stressed real estate loans and political uncertainty have led to a slower real estate recovery in Germany than in other large European economies. The feeling at MIPIM was that if Europe is to see a broad-based recovery, Germany needs to recover too.
“You can’t make Europe great again without making Germany great again, because it is the first economy of all the countries in the EU,” Swiss Life’s Guedj said.
“So the fact that the new German administration is looking to be more flexible with its economic rules is encouraging.”
Among German debt providers, Aareal Bank said it was looking to debut in data centre lending and add more living to its investment portfolio in 2025, two universally popular asset classes at MIPIM. Christof Winkelmann, member of the management board at Aareal Bank, said that he was positive about the outlook for hospitality, logistics and retail, while the company remained “comfortable” with its office investments and is likely to maintain its holdings in the sector.
Winkelmann remained confident on Grade A offices and older stock in good locations suitable for refurbishment. The company also remains active in hospitality in Europe, with a recent €200M loan for five Hoxton and Mama Shelter-branded hotels in Amsterdam, Edinburgh, Florence, Prague and Rome.
“It’s not unusual for the first quarter to be quiet for transactions, especially after a very busy Q4,” Winkelmann said. “I also sense that many in the industry feel the last year or two have been a little wasted and there is now more of a can-do attitude.”
