- Investors are bracing for Trump’s Tuesday 8:00pm ultimatum.
- Ceasefire trade ‘hasn’t happened yet,’ analyst says.
Bitcoin traders are holding their breath for Tuesday evening.
President Donald Trump’s 8:00pm ET Tuesday ultimatum to Iran — reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face US strikes on power plants and bridges — is now the fulcrum for global investors.
And crypto is the only market fully pricing it in real time, according to Gabe Selby, head of research at CF Benchmarks.
“The ceasefire trade hasn’t happened,” Selby said in a note shared with DL News. “The market is pricing uncertainty while it waits and crypto is the only venue open to do it.”
Selby’s call comes after Bitcoin briefly jumped on the Sunday ceasefire headlines, continuing a defining pattern of this year: major developments landing on weekends when traditional markets are closed, and crypto leading the way. Bitcoin reclaimed $69,000 within hours after a textbook short squeeze over $200 million in thin weekend liquidity.
“While equity, oil, and foreign exchange markets sat closed, Bitcoin’s 24/7 venue structure made it the first-moving asset for a Middle East ceasefire catalyst,” Selby said.
Trump’s Tuesday deadline
Iran has rejected a US ceasefire proposal brokered by Pakistan that would have reopened Hormuz and paved the way for broader talks.
Tehran’s counterproposal, outlined in 10 clauses, calls for an end to regional conflicts, sanctions relief and reconstruction commitments.
On Easter Monday, Trump appeared to raise the stakes.
“The entire country can be taken out in one night,” he warned, reiterating that absent a deal, every bridge and power plant in Iran could be destroyed by midnight on Wednesday.
Selby noted that while Trump has walked back geopolitical threats in the past — triggering sharp Bitcoin rallies — the conflict with Iran is testing the limits of that dynamic as Tehran shows resolve to fight on.
“There is no way to predict the outcome,” said economist Ed Yardeni.
“We can’t rule out that Iran will cave in. Or, Trump may postpone the deadline again, explaining that negotiations are making progress. Or the war will escalate. The fog of war remains thick.”
Crypto market movers
- Bitcoin is down 0.5% over the past 24 hours, trading at $68,627.
- Ethereum is down 1.3% over the past 24 hours at $2,103.
What we’re reading
Lance Datskoluo is DL News’ Europe-based markets correspondent. Got a tip? Email him at lance@dlnews.com