- Alex Thorn said the threat from quantum computing exists, but the industry should study post-quantum cryptography (PQ) in advance to respond to potential risks to Bitcoin’s security.
- He said institutions such as exchanges holding large amounts of funds can upgrade to quantum-resistant addresses if needed and are therefore largely outside practical danger, while the Bitcoin market has routinely absorbed more than 1 million coins.
- He added that most experts see it as reasonable to keep quantum-resistant technology in reserve for emergencies, and that the issue is worth discussing and preparing for in advance even if the odds of quantum computing affecting Bitcoin are only 1%%.
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The crypto industry is increasingly coalescing around the need to research post-quantum cryptography, or PQ, in advance as a way to address potential security risks to Bitcoin from advances in quantum computing.
Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, on May 3 posted on X a summary of recent discussions in Las Vegas with Bitcoin experts about quantum computing.
Addressing the risk that Satoshi Nakamoto’s holdings could be stolen, Thorn wrote that the coins are spread across about 22,000 addresses, with 50 Bitcoin in each. Hacking all of them with a quantum computer would take enormous time, he wrote. He added that institutions such as exchanges holding large amounts of funds could upgrade to quantum-resistant addresses if needed, leaving them largely insulated from any practical threat.
Thorn also argued that the market impact of any stolen coins would be limited. The Bitcoin market has routinely absorbed more than 1 million coins even outside bull markets, he wrote. Most Bitcoin supporters would choose to tolerate a temporary price drop rather than artificially infringe on property rights, one of the asset’s core values, he added.
On protocol defenses, Thorn said developing and validating new cryptography would benefit the Bitcoin ecosystem. At the same time, participants in the discussions said untested technology should not be rushed into adoption if it risks causing consensus gridlock or disrupting other important upgrades.
He added that most experts see it as reasonable to study quantum-resistant technology for emergencies and keep it in reserve. Even if the probability of quantum computing affecting Bitcoin is only 1%, the issue is still worth discussing and preparing for in advance, he wrote.