Strategy (MSTR) Weekend Outlook: Can 847,363 Bitcoin Reverse the Stock’s 56% Slide?

The 75,651 USD per bitcoin average acquisition cost versus the 67,000 USD current price means 847,363 bitcoin holdings have a fair value of 56.8 billion USD today versus 64.10 billion USD in historical costs and the 7.3 billion USD difference between those figures is simply a paper loss on an unrealised basis. It has no impact on Strategy’s ongoing operations, ability to accumulate or retain bitcoin and no debt obligations or loan covenants require bitcoin price to remain above the average cost basis. That is because Strategy’s bitcoin is a non-collateralized treasury holding, not debt collateral on margin. 

It is a psychological and narrative cost basis rather than a cost basis that determines financial solvency, but it does undermine a simple everything in excess of a cost basis is pure equity and profit thesis as the primary bull case for bitcoin accumulation above its average price earlier in 2026.

The bitcoin accumulation is also the most consistent over time. Strategy has overtaken all other bitcoin treasury companies in terms of bitcoin purchase volume in 2026; only 2% of all bitcoin purchased by treasury companies in 2026 has come from other sources, down from 95% in October 2025, meaning Strategy is on track to accumulate approximately 4% of all bitcoin ever produced within the lower bounds of its stated 3% to 7% bitcoin target by co-founder Michael Saylor. Just this past week Strategy bought 520 bitcoins at 67,068 USD per coin for 34.9 million USD and funded the trade by selling 2,714,839 shares for 335.5 million USD via the at-the-market offering program. 

That strategy is designed to issue MSTR equity at an above the NAV premium and then use the proceeds to buy bitcoin, which should increase the bitcoin per share count and the premium and allow the flywheel to continue spinning. Whether it is a viable strategy to do that at 85 USD versus 196.74 USD per share, when a great deal of that capital came in through MSTR stock offerings at much higher prices than 85 USD during 2025, and what the market is telling us is by the current 85.33 price.

Strategy has deployed five preferred stock instruments: STRK, STRF, STRD, STRC, and STRE. Together, these are the most important structural development in the bitcoin treasury company since MSTR first went public. This is not just another equity offering or a convertible note issuance; it’s a distinct and separate class of asset called the Digital Credit instrument class. Each instrument entitles the owner to dividends on that preferred stock. The most significant development to date is STRC, the most recently scaled instrument. STRC had reached a market cap of around $6.4B with an average daily trading volume of $339 million (as of mid-April 2026) and is trading close to its $100 par. 

The 1.4B USD reserve, which was established December 1 2025, is set aside to pay dividends to the preferred shares and the interest on existing debt instruments. This reserve has nothing to do with the price of either MSTR’s common shares or the price of BTC. These are what distinguish the Digital Credit instruments from an MSTR stock buy.

On June 25, 2026, the Rosen Law Firm disclosed that it was investigating Strategy Inc and its founder, Michael Saylor, regarding potential securities claims relating to misleading information about the company’s bitcoin holding. This investigation is still in preliminary stages: no lawsuit has been filed yet. This kind of securities claim announcement can often happen without any further action being taken by the company. However, the announcement comes just the day before the stock’s continued compression to the $85 level. The number one risk metric to continue watching is MSTR’s price versus NAV. If Strategy is trading at a big enough discount to NAV, then the ATM equity issuance engine cannot continue to operate. The reason is that if the company is issuing new shares at a discount, then the new BTC-per-share count is lower, and therefore this is dilutive.

On the daily, Strategy trades at $85.33. This is now below the EMA200 at $185.33 as it makes fresh, lower lows within a new descending channel from its previous high of $196.74. RSI is at 24.42, well below 30 as we approach extreme oversold conditions. Price is making lower lows; RSI is holding higher and thus forming a bullish divergence. That is the classic sign that the selling has run out of steam. Fibonacci extensions now project deeper support levels at the 1.618 level at $66.27, and at the 2.0 level at $35.46. 

Strategy (MSTR) Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

Holding above $66.30 while making a clear and confirmed close above $94.20 should take us on a bounce target for MSTR, $116.10. Core PCE is next week, which is likely a primary near term catalyst. The softer the number is, the more support risk assets will have. BTC, in particular, will continue to be highly sensitive to any sign of relief in regard to the higher for longer rate environment.

• Holdings:  847,363 BTC — aggregate cost $64.10B, avg $75,651/coin
• Current BTC price:  ~$67,000 — ~$7.3B below aggregate cost basis
• USD reserve:  $1.4B — supports preferred dividends and debt service
• ATM capacity:  $25.4B remaining — equity issuance flywheel still active
• Entry:  Long above $94.20 — oversold bounce setup
• Target / Stop:  $116.10 target / $66.30 stop — 1.618 Fib below

As of June 21, 2026, Strategy has 847,363 bitcoin in its portfolio at an aggregate cost basis of $64.10 billion, which works out to an average cost of $75,651 per bitcoin. With bitcoin at $67,000, the unrealized position is $7.3 billion in the red from its cost basis. Strategy is currently the largest holder of bitcoin by a public company and its portfolio represents approximately 4% of all bitcoin that will ever exist. 

Other corporate treasury companies had previously bought 95% of the institutional bitcoin but by 2026 that has been reduced to 2%, which makes Strategy the largest institutional buyer today.

Strategy Inc has launched five preferred stock instruments, STRK, STRF, STRD, STRC, and STRE, to build an entire ecosystem it describes as Digital Credit, bitcoin-backed perpetual preferred instruments. Since the beginning of 2026, STRC has reached a market cap of $6.4 billion (mid-April 2026) and trades at essentially $100, the par value of these preferred securities. 

A reserve fund, USD balance of $1.4 billion, currently backs dividend payments on these instruments along with interest on outstanding debt. The purpose of the Digital Credit instrument is to provide a funding mechanism that is partially insulated from MSTR common share price movements, allowing Strategy to raise capital through preferred issuances even when the common equity trades at lower levels.

On June 25, 2026, Rosen Law Firm has announced it is investigating Michael Saylor and his corporation for potential securities claims for misleading the market with regard to his holdings in bitcoin. There is currently no actual lawsuit, only an announced securities investigation. As we know from similar instances in the past, these types of investigations frequently get announced as a matter of speculation or as a matter of establishing a potential case, but very little of them ever amount to a legal action. 

The announced securities investigation by Rosen does contribute to some near-term negative sentiment that is working with the MSTR stock at $85, to create a strong headwind. But the larger threat that must be monitored here is the MSTR price-to-bitcoin-NAV relationship. If the stock trades at a sustained discount to NAV, the equity issuance flywheel that creates ongoing buy-side liquidity for the bitcoin holdings will become dilutive rather than accretive to existing shareholders.

Strategy holds 847,363 bitcoin coins at an average cost of $75,651 with today’s bitcoin prices $7.3 billion below the average on an unrealized basis and MSTR stock at $85.33. This gap in pricing is being factored in as a discount and is also factoring in the Rosen Law Firm investigation plus pressure from ATM dilution and the larger question on the functionality of this entire ecosystem at a time when common shares trade so much below the $196.74 highs. But there remains some structural resilience in the system thanks to the Digital Credit ecosystem, including a USD reserve of $1.4 billion, the $25.4 billion ATM capacity, and the five different preferred equity instruments.

RSI has just dipped to 24.42 and is oversold to the extreme with a bit of positive divergence in play. A close above $94.20 could move the price to $116.10. A stop at $66.30 is prudent. The next week’s macro data point is likely to be Core PCE which could be the swing catalyst for both bitcoin and MSTR.