March 2026 was not kind to the hedge fund industry. Escalating tensions between the US and Iran sent oil prices surging and markets into a tailspin, and firms like Millennium Management and Point72 Asset Management paid dearly for it. Now, with a temporary ceasefire in place, both firms are clawing back ground fast.
The recovery is notable not just because of the speed, but because of how far these funds had fallen. Millennium’s flagship fund dropped roughly 1.2% to 1.3% in March alone, nearly erasing gains it had spent the first two months of the year accumulating.
How bad was March, exactly
Between the two firms, losses totaled approximately $1.5 billion during the worst stretch of the US-Iran conflict. Analysts compared the severity to the early COVID-19 period, one of the most chaotic stretches for financial markets in recent memory.
The broader industry felt it too. Citadel and Balyasny, two other multi-strategy heavyweights, also took significant hits in March, with many firms erasing nearly all of their year-to-date gains in a matter of weeks.
The April rebound, by the numbers
The US-Iran ceasefire changed the calculus almost immediately. As geopolitical pressure eased and market volatility subsided, both firms staged sharp recoveries in April.
Point72 posted a gain of approximately 2.4% in early April, pushing its year-to-date return to around 6.3%. Millennium was close behind, gaining roughly 2.3% and bringing its YTD return to approximately 3.2%.
The deeper research suggests Point72’s full April numbers were even stronger, with the firm posting a 4.5% gain for the month and an 8.5% YTD return through early May. Millennium’s April gain came in around 2.7%, bringing its cumulative 2026 return to roughly 3.6%.