Bitcoin (BTC) fell from nearly $64,000 on Sunday to about $62,000 on Monday, and the primary trigger behind the move appeared to be a SEC disclosure showing Strategy’s largest ever sale of 3,588 BTC. The fuller explanation for the price action can be found deeper in the plumbing.
Sunday’s climb toward $64,000 was almost entirely futures driven. Net futures buying reached roughly $415 million for the day, capped by a single four-hour burst of about $687 million that force-closed some $33 million in bets against Bitcoin. Spot flows over the same session were slightly negative, and this gap matters since a rally with no cash buyers behind it rests on positions that can be forced to unwind at any moment.
Monday morning delivered the unwind, and it accelerated as Strategy’s filing landed. The largest corporate Bitcoin treasury holder sold BTC for $216 million to fund dividend payments, with a further $1.25 billion of sale capacity still untouched.
Following the news, Bitcoin futures flows swung to roughly $456 million of net selling in a single four-hour window. Liquidations hit both directions at once, roughly $42 million of bullish positions and $49 million of bearish ones. The Monday afternoon recovery looked different from Sunday’s rally as futures buying of about $568 million was joined, for the first time in days, by meaningful spot buying of about $143 million.
Through the price whipsaws, Bitcoin’s funding rate held firm in positive territory for over a week, including during Monday’s slide. With about $20.6 billion in open futures positions, the market’s leveraged optimism remains largely intact, but due to the funding rate and number of longs crowded into leveraged positions, the current setup is fragile.
Two areas to keep an eye on are whether Strategy’s sale marks the beginning of a prolonged selling phase for the company and whether the unused $1.25 billion authorization will weigh on any rally.
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve releases minutes from its June meeting, with markets currently pricing in a 75.6% chance that rates will remain at 3.50%-3.75% in July. Any hawkish tone in the minutes may test crowded leveraged long positions, with pressure zones at $62,300 to $62,800 above the market and $61,000 and $59,500 below.