Forecasts for the coming years have also been revised to reflect more cautious and slower growth:
– 2027: 2.8% growth (instead of 3.6%)
– 2028: 3.2% growth (instead of 4.0%)
– 2029: 3.4% growth (instead of 4.2%)
Average annual inflation for the current year is projected at 7.3%, and by the end of the year it could accelerate to 8.2%. The ministry also expects that, as the National Bank combats inflationary pressures and domestic demand, growth in household consumer spending will slow sharply to 1.6% (by comparison, this figure was 3.5% last year).
The ministry does not forecast a decline in nominal wages. On the contrary, the average monthly wage across the economy is expected to rise to 17,000 lei. However, due to inflationary pressures, citizens’ real purchasing power will grow significantly more slowly than previously anticipated.
Stagnation and a Decline in Living Standards
According to economist Vladimir Golovatyuk, the decline in real GDP growth from 2.2% to 1.8% and the rise in average annual inflation from 6.5% to 7.3% are not as critical for a stagnating economy as the decline in the population’s standard of living resulting from policies aimed at curbing domestic production.
“Of course, GDP and inflation are very important, and they affect many, if not all, indicators of the country’s socioeconomic development. Nevertheless, the fact that the projected average monthly wage has been reduced—from 17,200 to 17,000 lei—has been overlooked, whereas in previous years at least some growth was factored in. As a result, taking into account the projected rise in inflation, the real average monthly wage in 2026 will amount to 15,800 lei instead of the previously expected 16,100 lei,” the expert notes.
This means that people will actually be able to buy fewer goods and pay for fewer services than previously expected. It is not certain that projected inflation will stop there. “Given the increase in utility rates and prices that already occurred in August, as well as the fact that this rise will not stop there, inflation may be higher than the projected 7.3%. As a result, the situation with real wages may actually be significantly worse,” concludes Vladimir Golovatyuk.
Foreign Trade and Risks
Although the Ministry of Economic Development expects significant export growth (+15%) alongside more modest import growth (+9.2%), the country’s trade deficit will remain deep and exceed 7.58 billion lei.
The Moldovan government’s new estimates are virtually identical to those of international financial institutions. The European Commission expects Moldova’s economy to grow by 2%, while the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank previously revised their forecasts down to 1.9%.
The ministry emphasizes that these figures may be revised again in the event of new tariff or geopolitical shocks.
“Slowdown”
At the end of the first quarter of 2026, Moldova’s GDP grew by only 0.4% compared to the same period last year. This marked a sharp economic slowdown following 3.6% growth in the final quarter of 2025.
The main domestic factors holding back Moldova’s GDP growth in 2026 were stagnation in the construction sector, a downturn in the real estate market, and a crisis in the information technology (IT) sector.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, these three sectors showed the most severe negative trends. The construction industry is in a state of deep stagnation. The ministry forecasts that construction activity will virtually come to a standstill this year. This is directly linked to the decline in overall investment activity in the country.
The real estate sector has faced a decline in demand and transaction volumes due to the high cost of mortgage lending and a decrease in citizens’ purchasing power. Meanwhile, the IT and communications (ICT) sector—which is seen as a key driver of Moldova’s GDP—has, for the first time, shown a significant decline in value added. This is due to an outflow of foreign orders and general geopolitical instability in the region, which is deterring investors.
Meanwhile, economists are focusing on the decline in consumption and gross capital formation. Capital investment and domestic household consumption are falling sharply. High risks are forcing investors to postpone major projects and the population to tighten their belts.
Hopes for Agriculture and Trade
The main support for the economy—preventing GDP from slipping into negative territory—is currently provided solely by wholesale and retail trade, the manufacturing sector, and agriculture, where a moderate recovery in output is emerging.
The economy managed to avoid a full-blown contraction solely due to growth in exports (+10.8%), retail trade, and the manufacturing sector. Taking seasonal factors into account, the country’s economy actually contracted by 1.2% in the first quarter compared to the previous quarter.
As LOGOS PRESS reported, Vladimir Golovatyuk takes an extremely critical view of Moldova’s current foreign trade indicators and considers the emerging growth to be unstable. In his view, without an urgent change in government policy, the medium-term prospects for foreign trade will be seriously in question.
Commenting on data showing that exports grew by 12.5% in the first half of the year, Golovatyuk emphasizes that this increase is not the result of a genuine economic recovery. It is entirely due to a high comparative base and last year’s good harvest (agricultural products accounted for 87% of the growth). Exports of high-value-added industrial products continue to stagnate or decline.
The risk of exhausting growth potential is very high. The expert warns that since the current surge in exports began exactly one year ago, export growth rates may slow sharply or turn negative in the coming months due to the high-base effect.
According to Golovatyuk’s assessment, the country is in a protracted period of stagnation that could last for years without any improvement. The country has become a net consumer, living off imports and foreign loans, having completely squandered its domestic industrial potential.
The outlook for trade will remain negative until the country begins to shift the structure of its exports toward high-value-added goods instead of raw material exports such as grain, apples, and sunflower seeds.
The government and the entire expert community also pay lip service to this position…
