The 50-week moving average at $81,000 has separated Bitcoin’s bull and bear phases in every cycle, and Bitcoin trades 6.4% below it, going into a Fed decision the market has priced for a hike.
Long-term holders sold 539,000 BTC into the $77,100 to $80,200 band, so a buyer at $75,900 now purchases below that entire supply wall.
Traders on Polymarket put Bitcoin above $85,000 by December 31 at roughly 67% and above $95,000 at 32%, so a recovery into the mid-$80,000s is favored, though a new record before Christmas looks highly unlikely.
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) trades near $75,900 today, down 4% over the past day, with a 13.3% loss year-to-date and nearly 40% below the October 2025 all-time high of $126,000. Buyers who step in here pay above the average holder’s cost, below the 50-week moving average, and into a supply wall built by long-term holders through the summer.
The Federal Reserve decides on rates on September 16, and futures markets put the odds of a hike at 78% to 86%. So the question every buyer at this price is already asking is whether $75,900 is a discount to the last cycle or the first stop of the next drop.
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Where $75,900 Stands Against Bitcoin’s Price History
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At $75,900, Bitcoin is about 40% below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000, but it is still roughly 30% above its June 30 low of $58,562. It is also 13.3% below its January 1 opening price at $87,497. That makes the current decline significant, but it is still far smaller than Bitcoin’s 84% drop in 2018 and the deeper, longer decline that followed the 2022 peak.
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Bitcoin’s realized price, which estimates the average cost basis of coins across the network, is about $53,600. At $75,900, Bitcoin is trading roughly 42% above that level. That leaves the market well above the average holder’s cost basis, rather than in the broad loss zone that marked the deepest stages of previous bear markets.
Is $75,900 Early or Late for Bitcoin?
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Peter Brandt’s four-year cycle model, which has identified the last three Bitcoin bottoms within roughly a two-month window, points to September or October 2026 as the next potential cycle low. If that model holds, buyers at $75,900 would be entering during the expected bottoming window. Spot Bitcoin ETFs now hold about 6.30% of Bitcoin’s supply, creating a source of passive demand that did not exist in previous cycles.
Recently, Strategy resumed buying Bitcoin around $80,300, while long-term holders sold 539,000 BTC between $77,100 and $80,200, showing that some selling pressure has already been absorbed. That puts a large block of recently sold supply above the current price. If Bitcoin recovers, those levels could still act as resistance, but buyers at $75,900 are below the entire range where that selling took place.
Bitcoin has failed to break through the $80,000 to $82,000 area three times since the week of August 24, with each attempt followed by a lower close. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have also recorded about $463 million in outflows between September 8 and September 11, reversing some of the passive demand that supported the late-summer rally. Bitcoin has historically performed weakly in September, averaging a loss of about 3% since 2013, per Cryptorank.
Futures markets have priced a high probability of a September 16 rate hike by the Federal Reserve, which could tighten financial conditions and weigh on Bitcoin’s rally. The 10-year Treasury yield at 4.95% also gives investors a relatively high-yielding alternative to a volatile asset like Bitcoin.
At $75,900, the market is below a major supply zone but still above levels that would signal a deeper cycle downturn, leaving the next move to whether buyers can reclaim $80,000 to $82,000 or sellers push the price toward lower support levels.
Bitcoin’s Next Move Comes Down to $80,000 and $74,000
Bitcoin’s nearest resistance is $80,000, about 5.5% above the current price. Above it are $82,300 and $87,497, while support sits at $74,000 and then $72,000.
Bitcoin has failed to hold $80,000 twice since late August, so reclaiming it would not by itself confirm a new uptrend. A break below $74,000 would signal a deeper pullback and bring the June low of $58,562 back into focus. A bigger decline below $72,000 would signal that the current decline is becoming a deeper trend rather than another pullback. At $75,900, Bitcoin is between those two levels, so the price has not yet provided a clear confirmation in either direction.
Polymarket’s predictions put Bitcoin at about 67% to reach $85,000 by year-end and 32% to reach $95,000, pointing to a possible recovery but leaving room for another decline first. A lump-sum buyer at $75,900 takes that risk immediately, while dollar-cost averaging spreads the entry over time. The key near-term test is whether Bitcoin can reclaim $80,000 or lose $74,000.
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How do you continue to grow a seven-figure portfolio in retirement? The last thing you want is to run out of money, you want your money to generate lasting income while you enjoy your life.
