Bitcoin’s realized market cap trend reversal and consecutive ETF outflows jointly point to a slowdown in new capital inflows and weak demand. However, the resilience of prices near key support levels, the dynamic adjustment of on-chain cost structure, and JPMorgan’s analysis that the unwinding of hedging positions may bring potential support provide the market with multi-dimensional observational perspectives. The real verification signal lies in whether ETF demand can remain stable while investors’ defensive positions continue to decrease, rather than judging based solely on a single-day price rebound or total fund flow figures.
Data shows that as of September 14, Bitcoin’s realized market cap had maintained an increase for 27 consecutive days, but on September 15 it recorded negative growth for the first time. This indicator calculates the total on-chain valuation based on bitcoins that have recently been traded, reflecting changes in the capital status of holders when transferring assets at different prices. Bitcoin is currently trading at around $76,500. This turning point means that the on-chain valuation corresponding to recent transactions has declined, which is not equivalent to an equal amount of capital withdrawal, but rather reveals the dynamic adjustment of the holding cost structure.
Although U.S. spot ETFs suffered two consecutive days of massive outflows, Bitcoin prices still held near key support levels. According to Farside Investors, net outflows amounted to $450.4 million on September 15, and another $295.9 million flowed out on September 16, bringing the two-day total net outflow to $746.3 million. Even in the face of macroeconomic selling pressure following the Federal Reserve’s September policy decision, Bitcoin prices remained close to Glassnode’s defined “true market mean” of $76,700. Structurally, $71,300 constitutes the next short-term holder cost basis, while the $62,000 to $65,000 range forms a broader support area. If prices can recover above $76,700, with closing prices above the true market mean for two consecutive trading days and accompanied by improved capital inflows, it would confirm the return of new capital.
JPMorgan’s Analysis of the Hedging Mechanism
JPMorgan (JPM) has proposed a key market hypothesis: if investors unwind defensive positions such as put options and short selling while holding spot Bitcoin, the potential support for Bitcoin ETFs could exceed that of gold. This argument is based on a deep deconstruction of the differences in position structure and fund flows between the ETF markets of the two assets, with its core premise being that investors choose to retain assets rather than sell them.
After the Federal Reserve’s July 28-29 meeting, the market once again saw a rise in the “debasement trade,” in which investors tend to hold assets with limited supply due to concerns about inflation, rising public debt, or currency depreciation. A report by JPMorgan’s analyst team pointed out that both Bitcoin ETFs and gold ETFs saw net inflows against this backdrop. SoSoValue weekly data shows that from July 31 to September 4, the total net inflows of the two types of ETFs amounted to approximately $4.23 billion, but the breakdown data showed significant volatility, with multiple net outflows occurring and their scale gradually expanding.
JPMorgan’s comparison of IBIT (IBIT) and GLD (GLD) positions in March this year provided an empirical basis. The short interest ratio of BlackRock’s (BLK) iShares Bitcoin Trust product IBIT is rising, while the short interest ratio of SPDR Gold ETF GLD is declining. At the same time, IBIT’s ratio of put option to call option open interest is also higher than that of GLD. In short, Bitcoin ETF investors appear to have taken more risk-hedging measures than gold ETF investors. The larger short positions and number of put options mean that when investors no longer take protective measures for the same downside risk, the market reaction may be more severe.