Crypto ETFs have attracted $2.39 billion in weekly inflows, pushing 2026 net flows back above zero despite Bitcoin’s 4.3% decline as U.S. ten-year Treasury yields climbed to 5.20%, according to Hilbert Group.
Summary
- $2.39 billion in weekly ETF inflows reversed a year-to-date deficit that reached $5.8 billion in July.
- Bitcoin fell 4.3% to $83,500 as ten-year Treasury yields rose from about 4.95% to 5.20%.
- Hilbert’s Jesse Marre sees $89,000 as the breakout level that could open a move toward $95,000.
- Marre warned that agency-led crypto rules could be rewritten under a future U.S. administration.
Hilbert Group, the digital asset investment firm listed on Nasdaq First North, published its weekly market update on Sep. 28. In comments provided to crypto.news, senior portfolio manager Jesse Marre said continued ETF buying stood out during a week when rising government bond yields pressured Bitcoin and U.S. stocks.
Although Bitcoin retreated after its recent rally, Marre said fund inflows continued, repeating the previous week’s pattern of negative developments failing to produce a lasting setback in demand.
Crypto ETF inflows erase the year’s losses
For Marre, the $2.39 billion intake was the week’s strongest figure because it brought annual ETF flows back into positive territory after a deficit of $5.8 billion at the worst point in July.
“Bitcoin sold off 4.3 percent on the yield break and the flows still came, which is the same pattern we saw last week of bad news failing to stick.”
At about $108 billion, total ETF net asset value remained below its $152 billion peak, according to the portfolio manager. He noted that Bitcoin traded at $125,000 when fund assets reached that earlier high.
A Sep. 27 report on U.S. Bitcoin ETF inflows detailed the American funds behind the weekly demand. Citing Farside Investors data, the report put BlackRock’s IBIT inflows at approximately $1.16 billion, followed by Fidelity’s FBTC with $701.6 million and ARK 21Shares’ ARKB with $294.7 million.
According to the same report, Morgan Stanley’s MSBT attracted $203.3 million, its largest weekly intake since launching in April. Across the five sessions from Sep. 21–25, daily inflows declined from roughly $999 million on Monday to $134.5 million on Friday, while remaining positive each day.
Treasury yields remain high after the initial selloff
In Marre’s account, markets were relatively quiet until Wednesday, when ten-year Treasury yields broke above their previous highs and rose from around 4.95% to 5.20%.
Rather than identifying a single economic release behind the move, he attributed it to an existing upward trend, inflation concerns and doubts about the sustainability of government finances.
“A 25 basis point run through the highs with no catalyst and no retracement is a different kind of signal from a data-driven repricing. It says the trend and the fiscal concern are now sufficient on their own.”
During the selloff, Marre said the S&P 500 declined 1.2%, the Nasdaq lost 1.4%, and Bitcoin dropped 4.3% to $83,500. By the time of his comments, volatility had eased, and the S&P had returned to 7,750, but Treasury yields remained close to their highs.
With bond yields holding those levels, the portfolio manager cautioned against treating calmer trading as evidence that the pressure had ended.
“Yields sitting at the highs with volatility suppressed is not the same as the pressure being resolved.”
Earlier coverage of Bitcoin’s $83,000 support test, published Sep. 25, placed BTC around $83,450 after its move above $87,000. In that report, trader Daan Crypto Trades identified an $83,500–$85,000 trading range, while Ardi said losing $83,000 could bring $81,000 into view.
Bitcoin needs $89,000 to open a path toward $95,000
Looking beyond the narrower daily trading range, Marre described Bitcoin’s weekly consolidation between $82,400 and $87,500 as consistent with a pause after its strong rally.
Without a fresh catalyst, he expected trading to remain inside that band. Above it, he identified roughly $89,000 as the level whose clearance could open a move toward $95,000.
On the downside, the portfolio manager placed support at $80,000, followed by $77,000. In his assessment, a break below $77,000 would bring renewed selling pressure and damage the bullish structure, while the prevailing trend remained upward.
In options markets, Marre put DVol around 35 and described pricing across bullish and bearish options as relatively symmetrical. Five-delta calls carried implied volatility near 39%, he said.
According to his assessment, implied volatility remained below realised volatility, although the gap had narrowed from seven percentage points to roughly one to 1.5 points as Bitcoin’s actual price swings eased.
Despite that narrowing, Marre said option sellers still received little value at prevailing prices.
SEC guidance advances crypto rules without congressional legislation
Alongside the market moves, Marre pointed to further SEC guidance on the application of securities law to cryptocurrency tokens. In his interpretation, the guidance opened a path for lawful revenue distribution to holders through staking and buybacks.
Following CLARITY’s failure to pass, he described the SEC and CFTC as moving quickly to establish parts of the regulatory framework through their existing authority.
For U.S. investors, earlier reporting on the SEC’s tokenized stock framework, published Sep. 18, described a separate five-year pathway requiring approved stock tokens to preserve the economic, voting, dividend and liquidation rights of the underlying shares. The report also noted that the exemption remained subject to SEC modification.
While welcoming the agencies’ approach, Marre warned that measures adopted outside Congress could be changed by a future administration with a less supportive SEC. He placed that political risk more than two years away and said the durability of the changes would depend partly on how deeply they became established before then.
“Every rule written this way is a rule a future administration can rewrite, which makes the next two years less about what gets published and more about how deeply it embeds before the window closes.”
In the Sep. 28 update’s calendar, Marre listed PCE, core PCE, GDP and Chicago PMI for Wednesday, followed by ISM manufacturing on Thursday and nonfarm payrolls on Friday. He said the releases would help determine the direction of U.S. yields and provide further insight into the Federal Reserve’s next move.