The global push toward electric vehicles, renewables, battery storage and expanded power grids is supercharging demand for copper, lithium, silver and other critical materials. Increasingly, the fastest-growing new supply is coming from an unexpected place: the energy-transition infrastructure itself.
Clean energy technologies require far larger volumes of minerals than conventional energy systems, and demand tied to the transition is set to keep climbing for decades, the International Energy Agency says. That stands in contrast to a supply outlook constrained by new mines, refining capacity and processing infrastructure that can take years to develop — a conundrum now pushing governments and companies to rethink where future supplies will come from.
Batteries offer the clearest example. For years, concerns centered on mining enough lithium, nickel, cobalt and graphite. Now attention is shifting to recovering those same metals from batteries already in circulation.
First Phosphate Corp. (CSE: PHOS, OTC: FRSPF, FSE: KD0), a mineral development company dedicated to extracting and purifying phosphate for lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery cathode active material production, had its CEO and Director John Passalacqua elaborate on the company’s latest advancements in a METALS 100 interview, where he emphasized the standout results of the Bégin-Lamarche project’s PEA — including a CAD 2.1 billion net present value and strong internal rate of return — along with the firm’s deployment of advanced phosphoric acid technology and strategic partnerships to bolster its value chain and competitive position in the fast-growing LFP battery sector.
U.S.-based Redwood Materials says it recovers more than 95% of lithium, nickel, cobalt and copper from spent batteries and manufacturing scrap. The company processes more than 20 gigawatt-hours of lithium-ion batteries annually and produces over 60,000 metric tons of critical materials each year. With the first wave of large-scale EV batteries reaching retirement, available volumes are expected to keep climbing.
The IEA sees stepped-up recycling supplying 20% to 30% of global lithium, nickel and cobalt demand by 2050. In Europe, home to some of the world’s most ambitious recycling policies, researchers estimate recycled sources could meet about 15% of lithium, nickel and manganese and around 25% of cobalt needs by 2030.
Solar is next. Retired-panel recycling has so far centered mainly on glass and aluminum, with other materials too difficult or uneconomic to recover. A series of recent breakthroughs is changing that.
The Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research (TNO) demonstrated a laser-assisted process that recovers silicon at up to 99.998% purity and silver at 99.7%, with yields of about 97%. Researchers at Australia’s University of Newcastle, meanwhile, used flotation techniques already familiar to miners to recover nearly 100% of silver from end-of-life panels, at commercially scalable levels.
Rystad Energy estimates the total value of recyclable materials in solar panels could climb from roughly $2 billion today to about $80 billion by 2050. By 2035, the firm sees recycling of panels installed in 2020 supplying as much as 8% of the polysilicon, 11% of aluminum, 2% of copper and 21% of silver needed for new panel production.
Wind and grid equipment are opening up opportunities too. Turbine blades, long a recycling challenge due to their composite construction, are now being shredded for cement kilns. Veolia (VIE.PA) has developed a process turning previously unrecyclable fiberglass blades into pellets that replace coal, silica and limestone; U.S. peer REGEN Fiber produces reinforcing fibers for concrete, asphalt and composites.
Environmental consultant Quantis found that feeding a 7-metric-ton shredded blade into a cement kiln cuts coal use by 5 tons while avoiding 2.7 tons of silica, 1.9 tons of limestone and nearly 1 ton of additional minerals.
On the grid, Nucor (NYSE: NUE) runs specialized facilities processing retired transformers and transmission equipment, doubling its volumes of reclaimed copper and non-ferrous metals for use in new transmission components.
Mining will remain indispensable — demand growth is too large for recycling alone to satisfy. But the industry is discovering that future supply does not depend exclusively on what can be dug out of the ground. As concerns over critical-mineral shortages and supply-chain security mount, the most important new mine of the energy-transition era may be the one that has already been built.