Repair and restoration costs for energy-linked infrastructure damaged in the Middle East war could reach as much as $58 billion, Rystad Energy said Wednesday, which indicated oil and gas facilities may account for up to $50 billion of the total. The consultancy estimated that total repair and restoration spending across affected energy-linked facilities at between $34 billion and $58 billion, with an average estimate of $46 billion, including about $5 billion for industrial, power and desalination assets.
Supply chain challenges
Rystad said the conflict is becoming a broader test for the global energy supply chain, as rebuilding efforts compete for the same equipment, contractors and logistics capacity already committed to LNG and offshore projects since 2023. “Repair work does not create new capacity; it redirects existing capacity,” Karan Satwani, senior analyst at Rystad Energy, said, warning the shift could delay projects and add inflationary pressure beyond the Middle East.
Damage escalation
The estimate is up sharply from Rystad’s initial $25 billion projection published three weeks ago, reflecting a wider damage footprint after continued strikes before hostilities largely subsided following the April 8 announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran. The company said the main constraint on recovery is not financing, but access to long-lead equipment, specialist contractors and logistics networks.
Country breakdown
Iran has the highest number of affected facilities, with repair costs potentially reaching $19 billion under a high-damage scenario. Damage spans gas processing, petrochemicals, refineries, fuel storage and export infrastructure. In Qatar, damage is more concentrated but technically more complex, centered on Ras Laffan Industrial City, where several LNG trains were affected. Rystad said repair work in Qatar may overlap with QatarEnergy’s North Field expansion, potentially slowing progress on expansion projects.
IEA assessment
On Monday, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said more than 80 energy facilities in the Middle East have been damaged since Feb. 28, with over one-third classified as severely or very severely hit. Birol said restoring regional energy supply to pre-crisis levels could take as long as two years.