This is our landing page for polls about the Iran War, tracking support for U.S. military action in Iran since March 1, the day after the war began. We’ll regularly update this average as new polls come in. This page is designed to be viewed on the web rather than in our email client or the Substack app.
Click here for more information on how the average works. The Silver Bulletin average weights more reliable polls more heavily — you can find our latest pollster ratings here. Our process for calculating support for the Iran War is similar to that for calculating President Trump’s approval ratings.
This average includes polls that ask about support for the Iran War, strikes in Iran, or U.S. military involvement in Iran. Compared with tracking approval ratings, questions about war can be less straightforward. Our goal is to limit the analysis to polls that ask neutral questions rather than introduce assumptions about how the war is going or its objectives. (See below for more details on how we make this assessment.) Our default version of the ratings reflects a combination of all polls, whether conducted among adults, registered voters, or likely voters.
You can see all the numbers for each poll that feeds into our average below. You can also click here to download all the Iran War numbers.
We exclude questions that:
-
Make presumptions about the reasons for or against the war and/or offer an assessment about whether these objectives have been met (even if respondents are offered arguments on both sides);
-
Ask how the war is going relative to the respondent’s expectations (i.e., “Is the war going too far”?);
-
Ask about President Trump’s approval on Iran, as opposed to support for the overall war operation, or;
-
Ask about some particular aspect of the war (e.g. targeting nuclear facilities) rather than the overall situation.
Also, in line with longstanding Silver Bulletin policy, surveys that fail to provide the specific question wording or other key details about the poll (dates, sample frame, sample size) can’t be included.
Polls are adjusted for house effects (i.e. persistent differences between a pollster’s findings on the war and the consensus) and are weighted based on each firm’s pollster rating and the poll’s sample size and recency. The “influence” score in the table below shows the relative importance of a poll in our current average given these considerations. In practice, recency is often more important than the other factors in our weights.
As a reminder, we update this database about once per day. If a poll seems to be missing, we may not have added it yet, we may be awaiting more information from the pollster, or it may contain question wording that doesn’t meet our standards for this project.