Spot silver is lower early Wednesday. The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $68.33 will change the main trend to up. A move through $62.31 will reaffirm the downtrend.
Silver reached $67.55 Tuesday and turned lower. The move stopped below the $67.79 retracement level and below the $68.33 main top. Sellers showed up before the market could change the trend.
The current break is testing the $65.45 to $65.32 area. A sustained move under that zone could send silver into the 50-day moving average at $63.45. The $62.98 to $61.04 support zone sits below the moving average along with the $62.31 main bottom.
What to Watch
The Dollar Index is the first screen. It took back 100.561 after failing there Tuesday. Silver stays under pressure as long as that level holds. The two-year pushing toward 4.788% after last week’s hike is the rate market pricing a more restrictive path. The 10-year above 4.920% keeps the same pressure from the long end.
The UNGA headlines can still move crude. A real step toward Hormuz reopening keeps energy prices lower. A reversal in the diplomacy restores the premium. The oil story is the session-to-session swing. The dollar and yields are running the trade this week and neither one has cracked.
Silver is trading below the $65.45 to $65.32 area with the 50-day below at $63.45. The rally to $67.55 failed before it could threaten the main top. SLV is losing money while GLD takes it in. The swing chart is down and the dollar, the two-year, and the 10-year are all confirming the bearish lean.
Reclaiming $66.75 and then $67.79 weakens that case. A break through the 50-day strengthens it. Until the dollar and yields give ground, sellers own the trade and buyers need to hold the average or $62.31 comes back into focus.
More Information in our Economic Calendar.