After struggling to break past the resistance level at $65K, Bitcoin [BTC] finally crossed the $80K price threshold. However, at press time BTC was changing hands at $78,075.19 after over a 2% drop in 2 days.
This pushed MSB Intel to throw light on the fact that Bitcoin has historically spent very little time trading above $70,000. For its part, Bitcoin has 4,364 days of recorded daily closing prices. In this, only 12.7% of those closes were above $70,000.
This means that roughly 555 days of Bitcoin’s history had a daily close above that level.
Therefore, if looked at from a different lens for about 87.3% of its history, Bitcoin closed below $70,000. Yet, this in no way means that Bitcoin is overvalued or due for a correction.
Instead, it means that as Bitcoin’s price has risen over time, and levels that were once exception are now becoming the new normal.
Does this current rally above $80K look like a trap?
However, the story doesn’t end there. Though Bitcoin’s current market size looks enormous in isolation, it becomes much smaller when compared with the size of other major global asset markets.
As per the chart, gold’s total market value is roughly 20 times Bitcoin’s, global equities are around 100 times larger, and global real estate is more than 250 times larger.
So the issue here is that the investors are assuming Bitcoin to be expensive based on the price levels between $70,000 and $80,000. But in reality the entire game is about Bitcoin’s total market capitalization and not the price of one Bitcoin.
Expounding on the same, crypto analyst Quinten Francois said,
The human brain is terrible at understanding scale.
Francois believes Bitcoin could still grow if it captures even a small percentage of the huge wealth held in traditional assets.
This comes as AMBCrypto recently reported that both Bitcoin and gold are behaving more like two versions of the same “debasement hedge.”
Bitcoin vs. gold and equities
However, the dropping Bitcoin-to-gold ratio from its 2025 highs indicates that Bitcoin has been losing its ground against gold. Still, the good part is that it remains far above the levels seen during most of its earlier history.
This analysis comes on the heels of Bitcoin/Nasdaq’s relative-strength index falling 62%. Back in 2018, during the major crypto bear market, when many people believed Bitcoin was effectively finished, the index was at 76%.
Yet the steady recoveries eventually developed into Bitcoin’s enormous 2020–2021 bull run. The same pattern appeared again in 2022, when the index declined about 68% amid the crypto crash, rising interest rates, collapsing crypto companies, and widespread fear.
Back then too, Bitcoin eventually recovered and entered another major rally. Hence, Rand Group put it best when they noted,
The mood is exactly what it was the last two times. Everyone’s scared. Don’t sleep on it.
Final Summary
- The recent rally was good, but Bitcoin has historically spent very little time trading above $70,000.
- The dropping Bitcoin-to-gold ratio from its 2025 highs indicates caution that Bitcoin has been losing steam.