January 9, 2026 – NEW YORK—On Thursday, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic 
Data released the December 2025 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows that households’ inflation expectations increased at the short-term horizon and remained unchanged at the medium- and longer-term horizons. Job finding expectations declined to a series low—the second series low for the measure in six months—while job loss expectations also worsened. Spending and household income growth expectations remained largely unchanged. Delinquency expectations deteriorated to the highest level since the onset of the pandemic, but respondents were more optimistic about their future household financial situations. The survey was fielded from December 1 through December 31, 2025.
The main findings from the December 2025 Survey are:
Inflation
- Median inflation expectations increased by 0.2 percentage point to 3.4% at the one-year-ahead horizon in December. They were unchanged at the three-year and five-year-ahead horizons (3.0%). The survey’s measure of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentiles of inflation expectations) increased at the one-year and three-year-ahead horizons, while it was unchanged at the five-year-ahead horizon.
- Median inflation uncertainty—or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes—increased at all horizons.
- Median home price growth expectations remained unchanged at 3.0% for the seventh consecutive month. This series has been moving in a narrow range between 3.0% and 3.3% since August 2023.
- Median year-ahead commodity price change expectations declined by 0.1 percentage point for gas to 4.0%, by 0.2 percentage point for food to 5.7%, by 0.2 percentage point for cost of medical care to 9.9%, by 0.1 percentage point for the cost of college education to 8.3%, and by 0.6 percentage point for rent to 7.7%.
Labor Market
- Median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 2.5% in December, remaining below its 12-month trailing average of 2.7%. The series has been moving within the 2.4% to 3.0% range since May 2021.
- Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—decreased by 0.3 percentage point to 41.8%, remaining above its 12-month trailing average of 39.9%.
- The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months increased by 1.4 percentage points to 15.2%. The reading is above the series’ 12-month trailing average of 14.3%. The increase was broad-based across age and education groups. The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily, or the expected quit rate, in the next 12 months decreased by 0.2 percentage point to 17.5%.
- The mean perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current job was lost fell by 4.2 percentage points to 43.1%, reaching a new series low. The decline was driven by respondents with annual household incomes below $100,000 and it was most pronounced for those above age 60 and those with a high school degree or less.
Household Finance
- The median expected growth in household income increased by 0.1 percentage point to 3.0% in December, moving just above its 12-month trailing average of 2.9%.
- Median one-year-ahead household spending growth expectations decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 4.9%. The series has been moving in a range between 4.7% and 5.0% since May 2025.
- Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago deteriorated with a larger share of households reporting it is harder to get credit and a smaller share of households reporting it is easier to get credit. Expectations for future credit availability also slightly deteriorated, with the net share of respondents expecting it will be harder to obtain credit in the year ahead increasing.
- The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months increased by 1.6 percentage points to 15.3%, the highest reading since April 2020. The increase was most pronounced for respondents above age 60, those with a high school degree or less, and those with annual household incomes below $50,000.
- The median expectation regarding a year-ahead change in taxes at current income level decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 4.0%.
- Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt declined by 0.2 percentage point to 9.0%, while remaining well above the 12-month trailing average of 6.5%.
- The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher in 12 months declined by 0.7 percentage point to 23.4%.
- Perceptions about households’ current financial situations compared to a year ago improved, with a smaller share of households reporting a worse financial situation and a larger share of households reporting a better financial situation. Year-ahead expectations about households’ financial situations also improved, with a smaller share of households expecting a worse financial situation and a larger share of households expecting a better financial situation (the highest since February 2025) in one year from now.
- The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now increased by 0.1 percentage point to 38.0%.
About the Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE)
The SCE contains information about how consumers expect overall inflation and prices for food, gas, housing, and education to behave. It also provides insight into Americans’ views about job prospects and earnings growth and their expectations about future spending and access to credit. The SCE also provides measures of uncertainty regarding consumers’ outlooks. Expectations are also available by age, geography, income, education, and numeracy.
The SCE is a nationally representative, internet-based survey of a rotating panel of approximately 1,300 household heads. Respondents participate in the panel for up to 12 months, with a roughly equal number rotating in and out of the panel each month. Unlike comparable surveys based on repeated cross-sections with a different set of respondents in each wave, this panel allows us to observe the changes in expectations and behavior of the same individuals over time. For further information on the SCE, please refer to an overview of the survey methodology here, the FAQs, the interactive chart guide, and the survey questionnaire.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data