August 9, 2026 – NEW YORK—The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data on Friday released the July 2026 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows that households’ inflation expectations decreased slightly at the short-term horizon and remained unchanged at the medium- and longer-term horizons. Gas price growth expectations rebounded partially after their sharp decline in June. Labor market expectations were mixed with unemployment and job loss expectations deteriorating while job finding expectations improved somewhat. Respondents were less pessimistic about their current and future household financial situations, and expectations about future credit availability also improved. The survey was fielded from July 1 through July 31, 2026.
The main findings from the July 2026 Survey are:
Inflation
- Median inflation expectations at the one-year-ahead horizon decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 3.6% in July. The three-year and five-year-ahead horizons were unchanged at 3.3% and 3.0%. The survey’s measure of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentiles of inflation expectations) slightly decreased at all horizons.
- Median inflation uncertainty—or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes—decreased at the one- and five-year horizons and was unchanged at three-year horizon.
- Median home price growth expectations remained unchanged at 3.2%, remaining above its 12-month trailing average of 3.1%.
- Among commodities, median year-ahead expected price changes increased by 1.4 percentage points to 2.9% for gas, and by 0.1 percentage point to 5.8% for the cost of college education. Median year-ahead expected price changes decreased by 0.5 percentage point to 8.9% for the cost of medical care and by 2.4 percentage points to 5.9% for rent. Median year-ahead expected price change for food remained unchanged at 5.0%.
Labor Market
- Median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations remained unchanged at 2.8% in July. The series is above its 12-month trailing average of 2.6%.
- Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—increased by 1.1 percentage points to 42.8%. The increase was broad-based across age and income groups.
- The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months increased by 0.1 percentage point to 14.2%, remaining below its 12-month trailing average of 14.5%. The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily, or the expected quit rate, in the next 12 months also increased by 1.3 percentage points to 18.6%, slightly above the series’ 12-month trailing average of 18.5%.
- The mean perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current job was lost increased by 1.3 percentage points to 46.2%. The increase was most pronounced for those with at most a high school degree and those with annual household incomes under $50,000.
Household Finance
- The median expected growth in household income remained unchanged at 3.0% in July. The series has been moving in a narrow range between 2.8% and 3.0% since June 2025.
- Median one-year-ahead household spending growth expectations slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 4.9%, falling slightly below its 12-month trailing average of 5.0%.
- Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago declined, with the net share of households reporting it is harder to get credit increasing. Expectations for future credit availability improved, with a smaller share of respondents expecting it will be harder to obtain credit in the year ahead.
- The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months increased by 1.2 percentage points to 12.0%, remaining below its 12-month trailing average of 12.7%. This increase was most pronounced for those with annual household incomes below $50,000 and those with at most some college education.
- The median expectation regarding a year-ahead change in taxes at current income level decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 3.0%.
- Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt decreased by 0.4 percentage point to 9.1%, remaining above its 12-month trailing average of 8.8%.
- The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher in 12 months increased by 1.6 percentage points to 28.2%.
- Perceptions about households’ current financial situations compared to a year ago improved, with a smaller share of households reporting a worse financial situation and a larger share of households reporting a better financial situation. Year-ahead expectations about households’ financial situations also improved, with a smaller net share of households expecting a worse financial situation in one year from now.
- The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now increased by 0.5 percentage point to 41.4%, the highest level of the series since April 2021.
About the Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE)
The SCE contains information about how consumers expect overall inflation and prices for food, gas, housing, and education to behave. It also provides insight into Americans’ views about job prospects and earnings growth and their expectations about future spending and access to credit. The SCE also provides measures of uncertainty regarding consumers’ outlooks. Expectations are also available by age, geography, income, education, and numeracy.
The SCE is a nationally representative, internet-based survey of a rotating panel of approximately 1,300 household heads. Respondents participate in the panel for up to 12 months, with a roughly equal number rotating in and out of the panel each month. Unlike comparable surveys based on repeated cross-sections with a different set of respondents in each wave, this panel allows us to observe the changes in expectations and behavior of the same individuals over time. For further information on the SCE, please refer to an overview of the survey methodology here, the FAQs, the interactive chart guide, and the survey questionnaire.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York