The Macroeconomic Confidence Index of the CFA Romania Association dropped significantly in March, falling by 10.2 points to 38.2. This decline reflects a deterioration in the perceptions of financial analysts regarding both economic prospects and the current situation.
According to a statement released by the organisation on Friday, the expectations component decreased by 10.5 points to 40.7, while the current conditions component fell by 9.5 points to 33.3.
“In the context of the oil crisis and global risk aversion on international markets, inflationary expectations have increased, as have expectations for nominal interest rate hikes (which are closely linked to both inflation trends and risk aversion). Furthermore, economic growth expectations for the current year have also recorded declines,” stated Adrian Codirlașu, President of the CFA Romania Association.
The anticipated inflation rate for a 12-month horizon (April 2027) rose by 1.72 percentage points compared to the previous month, reaching 7.61%. Approximately 47% of participants anticipate an increase in the inflation rate over the next 12 months compared to its current level, while 37% expect a decrease.
Regarding the EUR/RON exchange rate, approximately 86% of participants anticipate a depreciation of the leu over the next 12 months, while 14% expect stagnation. Consequently, the average expectation for a 6-month horizon is RON 5.1303 for EUR 1, while the average anticipated rate for a 12-month horizon is RON 5.1644 for EUR 1.
The survey has been conducted monthly by the CFA Romania Association for over 14 years, quantifying the expectations of financial analysts regarding economic activity in Romania for a one-year horizon. The survey is carried out during the final week of each month among CFA Romania members and candidates for levels II and III of the CFA exam.
The Macroeconomic Confidence Index ranges from 0 (total lack of confidence) to 100 (full confidence in the Romanian economy). it is calculated based on six questions concerning current conditions—business environment and the labour market—and expectations for a one-year horizon regarding the business environment, labour market, and the evolution of personal income and wealth at an economic level.
In addition to the core index questions, the survey evaluates one-year expectations for the inflation rate, interest rates, the EUR/RON exchange rate, the BET stock index, and global macroeconomic conditions.
