Resilience under pressure: prolonged energy disruption and tighter financing
By Iván Weigandi
24 September 2026
The global economy has proved more resilient than expected to the energy and shipping shocks from the Iran war, but that resilience is becoming increasingly fragile. Nearly seven months into the conflict, Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMI) indicate that global trade is expanding at an annual rate of roughly 8%, while demand from advanced economies has held up. Financial conditions were supportive through much of the summer, yet rising yields and sustained restrictive policy are now tightening financial conditions. In energy markets, inventories, alternative export routes and weaker demand have mitigated some initial disruptions, while geopolitical signals and expectations create some price volatility.
Under a prolonged-disruption scenario, oil demand in 2027 could remain around 6.6 million barrels per day below its pre-war forecast of approximately 108.2 million barrels per day. At the same time, a global monetary tightening cycle remains entrenched. Persistent energy inflation has pushed up expected policy rates and long-term yields, making larger energy import bills more difficult to finance. Consistent with this tightening, nearly $900 million has left the largest emerging-market dollar-bond ETF in September alone. Higher dollar demand from energy firms and importers is also putting pressure on currencies in Uganda, Ghana and Zambia.
Global oil markets have absorbed much of the initial supply disruption through the deployment of emergency and strategic reserves, alternative Gulf export routes and lower demand. International Energy Agency (IEA) members have released more than 300 million barrels from emergency stocks, while Saudi and Emirati pipelines bypassing Hormuz increased exports by around 3.7 million barrels per day at their June peak relative to February, before falling back in August. Weaker demand has also reduced the impact, with global oil demand in the second quarter averaging around 5.3 million barrels per day below year-earlier levels. Similarly, global gasoil demand fell by 1.2 million barrels per day year-on-year in the second quarter, while demand for naphtha, LPG and ethane fell by another 1.8 million. The Middle East and Asia are expected to account for around 80% of the decline in global oil demand in 2026.
The broader macroeconomic impact has also been partly cushioned by strong goods trade and continued access to external finance. PMIs indicate that manufacturing export orders in August were consistent with merchandise trade expanding at around 8% annually – the strongest performance of S&P Global’s manufacturing PMI export index in five years. Technology and machinery exports have been supported by AI infrastructure investment, defence spending and precautionary stock-building, benefiting developing economies integrated into manufacturing supply chains and related commodity markets such as the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam. Emerging-market assets have also attracted inflows, while corporate spreads have narrowed across much of Asia and Latin America.
Aggregate resilience, however, masks significant differences across countries, with low-income net energy importers facing greater pressure as the shock persists. According to PMIs, growth in emerging marketspicked up in August after hitting a 14-month low in July, but it remained slower than in advanced economies. The IMF expects weaker growth prospects for several energy importers, including Zambia, Morocco, Egypt and Tunisia, while prospects for some oil exporters, including Angola and Algeria, have improved.
For importers, higher crude prices are compounded by additional price and availability pressures in refined-fuel and gas markets. Global refinery throughput was more than four million barrels per day lower in August than a year earlier, constraining refined-product supply, while North Asian spot LNG prices were around 150% above February levels in mid-September. Countries with fewer options to substitute supply or absorb higher import costs have been particularly exposed: Bangladesh and Pakistan have struggled to secure gas, India has faced LPG shortages and the Philippines has introduced emergency energy-saving measures. Ninety-four countries have cut fuel taxes, capped prices or introduced subsidies.
The outlook is increasingly uncertain. The IEA has warned that inventory buffers are rapidly depleting. Global observed oil inventories have fallen by 507 million barrels since the war began, including 95 million barrels in August. Only four commodity vessels crossed Hormuz on 17 September, down from a ten-day pre-disruption average of 16, while Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline has also come under attack.
Figure 1: Global observed oil inventories (million barrels)