- Tencent (700 HK) has been in a downtrend since the end of September 2025. The correction repriced the 2024 rally that tripled the stock’s value. A reversal may be underway.
- Our model signals a potential upcoming short-term trend reversal, the May 13 Q1 2026 earnings announcement could act as a potential near-term catalyst. Could become a major turning point.
- Consensus: bullish. According to Gaudenz Schneider 46 analysts cover the stock with a median price target of HKD 724, implying ~53% upside from current levels, consistent with our LONG signal.
- Macro Shift: With the Bank of Japan’s policy rate normalization, the “Interest RateRenaissance” is structurally expanding Net Interest Income (NII) across the sector.
- The report analyzes Mizuho (8411) alongside the respective investment profiles of MUFG (8306) and SMFG (8316) as a varied way to express an overall sector view.
- Single Stock Options On JPX: The analysis includes practical considerations and contract details of OSE SSOs, discussing execution and liquidity, and addressing trades in the near and long term tenors.
- Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) recently reported record Q1 2026 revenues and has rallied for five consecutive weeks, reaching price levels clearly exceeding the MAX historical boundary of our quantitative model.
- Cerebras Systems IPO, expected to price on May 13, introduces a narrative risk for Samsung’s HBM business. We wonder if this could serve as a catalyst for a price pullback?
- Should a pullback materialize this week, it would represent a BUY opportunity. This insight outlines our model’s support distribution, to be re-updated following this week’s close.
- Context:Tencent (700 HK) will announce 1Q 2026 results on 13 May, with 15 May options providing direct exposure to the earnings event.
- Highlight: Options price an earnings move above the historical range, while the IV term structure points to a clear event premium and expected post-results volatility crush.
- Why Read: Gain insight into Tencent’s earnings-day price history, option-implied move, strategy implications, and potential index-level volatility impact as Alibaba reports on the same day.
- China Resources Land (1109 HK) is among the stocks that will be subject to significant passive selling flows at the end of May, according to recent insights by Brian Freitas .
- Connect flows data posted by Ke Yan suggests mainland investors are quietly rotating out of China Resources Land (1109 HK) ahead of the rebalance, front-running the forced passive selling.
- The stock hasn’t visibly broken down yet (5 weeks straight up), our model predicts a high-prob reversal from this week, with support at HK$31.10–30.54 found after 2 weeks.
- Context: Softbank Group (9984 JP) reports FY2025 earnings on 13 May 2026 after market close. The nearest listed options expiry after the event is 11 June.
- Highlights: Options imply a ±7.7% earnings move, above the historical median/average range, while near-term IV sits above 80% and close to historical highs.
- Why Read: After a 60% one-month rally, SoftBank’s earnings reaction could drive both stock-level and index volatility, with option spreads offering an alternative to standalone long or short option positions.
- Alibaba ( 9988 HK / BABA US ) will announce FY2026 results on 13 May, with 15 May HK- and US-listed options providing direct exposure to the earnings event.
- HK options price an earnings move above the historical range, while straddle break-evens set a high bar for long-volatility strategies.
- Gain insight into Alibaba’s HK-listed earnings-day price history, US/HK pricing consistency, volatility term structure, and index implications ahead of the upcoming results announcement.
- Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (388 HK) revenues stand to benefit from increased trading activity driven by index rebalancing flows ahead of the HSCI rebalance scheduled for end-May.
- However, our current (model-based) tactical view is that 388 HK stock appears ready for consolidation, possibly beginning this coming week: overextended rally primed for a pullback.
- With the HSCI rebalance announcement still ~2 weeks away, any pullback may offer an attractive entry point for long positioning at discounted prices.
- Top Hong Kong Stock Exchange listed covered call candidates for the month of May.
- The top 10 provide an average ~5.71% premium with a potential ~6.98% upside P&L if exercised.
- Investors with a neutral 1-month view on the underlying can seek to generate income.
- Alibaba (9988 HK / BABA US) will announce FY2026 results on 13 May, three trading days before the 15 May US-listed options expiry.
- Options markets price an earnings move above the historical range, while elevated straddle break-evens set a high bar for long-volatility strategies.
- Gain insight into Alibaba’s earnings-day price history, upside/downside reaction pattern, and volatility term structure ahead of the upcoming results announcement.