Scarborough: What today’s interest rates really mean for Tyler commercial real estate
Published 5:35 am Wednesday, July 22, 2026
The question I hear most from property owners and investors is simple: Should I wait for rates to come down? A year ago, many people expected that answer to come quickly. It has not. The Federal Reserve has held its benchmark rate at 3.50% to 3.75% and the rate-cut story that many buyers and sellers were counting on has, at least for now, stalled.
Yet commercial real estate activity is adjusting, if not beginning to recover:
- U.S. CRE transaction value: $179.9B in Q4 2025, up 20.2% year-over-year
- 2026 investment volume forecast: Up 16% nationally
- Transactions tracked in the Scarborough CRE internal comp database: Nearly tripled from 2023–2025
- Typical closing sale price compared to listing price: ~97 cents on the dollar, up from ~94 cents two years ago
This tells me the gap between buyers and sellers is tightening, which is what a functioning market looks like.
Income durability is now the whole ballgame, and that favors many of the property types East Texas does well. Necessity-based retail, medical, and industrial properties with strong tenants are still drawing attention. A well-leased neighborhood center in Tyler with grocery, service, medical, or food tenants fits the kind of durable-income profile many buyers are prioritizing today.
Tyler’s fundamentals continue to support long-term confidence as well. The U.S. Census Bureau estimates Tyler’s population at 113,723 as of July 1, 2025, up 7.4% from the April 2020 estimate base. The area continues to benefit from steady employment, new development, and growth across manufacturing, health care, retail, and service-based industries.
That does not mean every deal works. It means good real estate with durable income, realistic pricing, and strong local fundamentals still has a market. In this cycle, discipline matters. Hope is not a strategy. Income, location, tenant quality, and basis are what will separate good deals from bad ones.
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Scarborough Commercial Real Estate is here to help owners and investors read this environment clearly and act with confidence.
— Samuel Scarborough, CCIM, is broker and president at Scarborough Commercial Real Estate, LLC located at 410 W. Erwin St. in Tyler. Since 2016, Scarborough has earned a reputation as a trusted advisor and expert in the local market.