- CATL (3750 HK) stock dropped nearly 7% on Tuesday, April 28, after announcing a massive (62.4M) share placement at a discount. CATL (300750 CH) fell only 1.66%.
- Quantitative DAILY model analysis of CATL (300750 CH) identifying short-term support targets and projected price action for the next trading sessions.
- We expect a rebound on Wednesday/Thursday, support around 420 looks statistically quite solid, according to our model.
- Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (3750 HK) discounted H-share placement triggered a sharp drop, but the capital raise appears opportunistic rather than defensive, funding global expansion and zero-carbon initiatives.
- CATL A-Share (300750 CH) resilience suggests the H-share weakness may be largely placement-specific rather than a broader reassessment of CATL’s long-term outlook, leaving scope for a rebound from depressed levels.
- Elevated, but not excessive, implied volatility supports a potential put-underwriting strategy for investors who expect limited further downside in the H-Shares and possible volatility normalisation.
- The Nikkei 225 INDEX continues to trade at record levels, having doubled in value since April 2025.
- The BOJ is expected to leave its interest rate unchanged on April 28th. Market focus is centered on forward guidance regarding the eventual timing of normalization.
- Although the policy pause supports immediate momentum, our model signals high reversal risk. Potential catalysts include profit-taking or expanded volatility in the event of a hawkish shift in BOJ rhetoric.
- The U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict caused a supply shock, spiking crude oil and worsening stagflation risks, particularly if the BoJ maintains a 0.75% or signals a slowdown of normalization.
- The recommended hedge should look at Nikkei JUN26 volatility, looking for positive gamma and convexity for optimizing profits in risk off scenarios.
- Dollar-Yen could see a downside correction as US-Japan rate differentials narrow and US tariff policy
- The CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300) outperformed the HSI Index materially through April, approaching its recent all-time high. Despite the strongly bullish price action, our model points to near-term consolidation.
- Despite the recent bullish price action, our model suggests that a correction from current levels — based on historical trend analogues — could last 2-3 weeks.
- Risk: the correction may extend beyond a single-week pullback. Support targets are discussed in the insight.
- Bank Of China Ltd (H) (3988 HK) is among the stocks that will be subject to significant passive selling flows at the end of May, according to Brian Freitas.
- Bank Of China Ltd (H) (3988 HK)‘s pullback last week is trivially small relative to the expected selling pressure. Our model’s down-path analogues suggest the real move hasn’t started yet.
- Our model’s path analogues point to a probable landing zone of HK$4.97–4.88 over the next 3 weeks, with tail risk toward HK$4.6 if forced selling clusters around the rebalance date.
- Weekly index weakness contrasts with firmer North American markets, setting up a potentially more constructive start for HSI despite recent underperformance.
- Energy stood out with both strong price performance and rising options activity, marking it as a focal point for the week.
- A surge in Pop Mart option trading reshaped activity rankings, highlighting concentrated flows and notable positioning in a single name.
- U.S. equities see potential challenges maintaining visibility on future revenues in the current environment, with indices facing technical resistances as of late.
- Japanese Indices: TOPIX may be somewhat undervalued holding potential for a solid eventual rebound if a pullback is triggered by macro headwinds.
- Strategic trade idea designed to transfer premium generated by the directionally biased short volatility position while things appear shaky to fund the bullish Japan leg.