Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG).
There’s hope that Nigeria’s macroeconomic environment will soon experience a positive turnaround as data shows it moved from a period of intense adjustment in 2024 toward gradual stabilisation in 2025.
Nigeria experienced one of its worst economic pressures in 2024 following structural reforms introduced by the present administration. The reforms which include, the removal of fuel subsidy, exchange rate liberalisation as well as monetary policy tightening, saw the economy at the brink of collapse as inflation rose sharply, the local currency depreciated and the exchange rate soared.
All these drained the purchasing power of the citizens, thus worsening their cost of living conditions.
However, recent data released by the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG), indicate that the reforms are beginning to moderate systemic imbalances.
The data contained in the Macroeconomic Conditions Monitor of the NESG, noted however that while the direction of change is now positive, the pace remains uneven, and underlying vulnerabilities, particularly as the fiscal and real sectors, continue to constrain a full recovery.
The report shows that in 2024, the Macroeconomic Condition Index (MCI) fell to –3.0 points, its lowest level in decades, underscoring the cumulative impact of persistent inflationary pressures, mounting fiscal stress, and sustained exchange rate depreciation.
The deterioration, it said, was broad based across key pillars, with the Real Sector Index (RSI) at -3.8 points, the Fiscal Sector Index (FSI) at –68 points, and the External Sector Index (ESI) at–17 points, while the Monetary and Financial Sector Index (MSI) remained stable at+0.4 points.
“The broad deterioration highlights reform-induced adjustment, exposing deep structural weaknesses, pushing macroeconomic conditions to their weakest point in recent history”, the report said.
According to the report, data for 2025 indicate a clear but measured improvement in macroeconomic conditions, with the MCI moderating from –3.0 points in 2024 to -2.0 points in 2025. “Across the quarters in 2025, the MCI improved progressively from -2.9 points in Q1- 2025, -2.7 points in Q2-2025, -2.3 points in Q3-2025, to -2.0 points in Q4-2025.
“This trajectory confirms that macroeconomic pressures are easing, but at a gradual pace”, the report said.
It noted that the improvement in 2025 was largely driven by the external sector, where the external sector stability index (ESI) shows the most significant turnaround.
From -1.7 points in 2024, the index improves steadily, turning positive by Q3-2025 to +0.3 points and strengthening further to +0.9 points in Q4-2025. This reflects exchange rate stability and improved capital flows.
Other highlights of the report include that quarterly momentum shows steady improvement across all quarters in 2025 indicates a genuine pivot, not one off rebound. Real sector remains constrained. Even though the real sector stability index (RSI) improved, it stays negative (–3.8 to -2.2), highlighting persistent inflation and productivity challenges, while the fiscal stability index (FSI) sank further into negative territory (-6.8 to -7.1), underscoring unresolved debt and revenue constraints.
The report concluded that the macroeconomic conditions are stable but sustaining progress will depend on policy consistency and effective implementation.