Washington
A deluge of economic data released Thursday should have provided a clearer picture of how the US economy is faring in the face of President Donald Trump’s massive policy shifts. But the latest numbers were a mixed bag, leaving economists still scratching their heads.
Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic output, registered an annualized rate of -0.5% from January through March, the Commerce Department said Thursday in its third and final estimate. That’s worse than the 0.2% decline reported in the second estimate. GDP is adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation.
The latest estimate showed that consumer spending — the lifeblood of the US economy — was tepid in the beginning of the year. Spending in the first quarter grew at a rate of just 0.5%, down from 1.2% in an earlier estimate. That’s the weakest rate in more than four years.
Separately, new data showed that unemployed Americans are having an increasingly harder time finding work. A deteriorating job market — if that turns out to be the case — would not bode well for consumer spending, which already seems to be on shaky ground.
Still, in a shred of good news, other figures showed that businesses are still investing, despite the persistent uncertainty over Trump’s on-again, off-again tariffs and the potential impact of his massive tax and spending bill currently being reviewed by the US Senate.
“Thursday’s GDP is backward looking and stocks already priced in the economic weakness caused by the tariffs during their decline in early April,” Paul Stanley, chief investment officer, Granite Bay Wealth Management, wrote in commentary issued Thursday. “Now, with stocks back at record highs, the market is looking ahead and pricing in an environment where tariffs are lower and that companies will be able to adapt and navigate tariffs.”
Overall, the latest economic numbers continue to show how tariff fears are weighing on the world’s largest economy as key drivers of growth — the labor market and spending — have lost some momentum.
Despite spending being revised much lower, the main driver of the decline in first-quarter GDP was a massive trade deficit, as American businesses rushed to stock up on imports to get ahead of Trump’s stiff tariffs. The third estimate revised imports down, but they still greatly exceeded exports, which subtracted from GDP.
Fresh data released Thursday morning by the Labor Department showed the number of people receiving jobless benefits for at least one week rose by 37,000 to 1.974 million, marking the highest total since November 6, 2021. Some Fed officials don’t believe that development is concerning.
“The data today confirmed that continuing claims are going up because it takes a little longer to find a job. That’s consistent with the hiring numbers just being slower as the economy comes to a more sustainable pace,” San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said Thursday in an interview with Bloomberg. “But when I look at the labor market, there are really no warning signs that it’s weakening.”
The Commerce Department separately reported on Thursday that new orders for US durable goods surged 16.4% last month, as business demand for transportation equipment ramped up sharply. The overall boost in orders last month came as China lowered tariffs on American exports from 125% to 10%, while the US lowered tariffs on Chinese exports from 145% to 30%.
New orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft — a closely watched proxy for business investment — grew at a rate of 1.7% in May from the prior month, rebounding sharply from a 1.4% decline in April. That bodes well for economic growth in the second quarter, which will be reported next month.
But the latest figures likely don’t have much bearing for Fed officials, who are divided on whether the central bank should resume lowering interest rates next month.
“The revisions to GDP won’t have significant implications for the Federal Reserve as it’s backward looking. The Fed is focused on the inflation risks stemming from tariffs and the labor market,” Ryan Sweet, chief US economist at Oxford Economics, said in an analyst note Thursday. “If the Fed pivots and signals that it will cut rates earlier than we anticipate, with the next occurring in December, it will be because of the labor market, not GDP.”