Fez– Morocco’s phosphate industry is helping the country navigate a difficult global economic environment, according to the latest Global Economic Prospects report from the World Bank.
While global growth is expected to slow to 2.5% in 2026, the kingdom is benefiting from rising fertilizer prices that are supporting export revenues and cushioning part of the impact of higher energy costs.
The World Bank projects that global economic growth will ease from 2.9% in 2025 to 2.5% in 2026 before gradually recovering to an average of 2.8% between 2027 and 2028.
The weaker outlook is largely linked to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which has disrupted global energy markets and increased uncertainty across the world economy.
According to the report, commodity prices are expected to rise by 22% in 2026, while oil prices could increase by 36% compared with 2025 levels.
Such developments present major challenges for energy-importing countries, including Morocco, as higher fuel costs weigh on household spending, public finances, and external balances.
However, Morocco has a significant advantage that sets it apart from many countries facing similar pressures.
The World Bank notes that higher fertilizer prices are expected to boost the country’s export earnings, helping to offset part of the increase in import costs.
The North African country holds around 70% of the world’s phosphate reserves and has steadily expanded its position in the global fertilizer industry over the past decade.
Rather than relying mainly on raw phosphate exports, Morocco has strengthened its presence in higher-value fertilizer production, a sector that has become increasingly important for global food security.
As a result, while rising oil prices create economic pressure, higher fertilizer prices provide an important source of support for the Moroccan economy.
The World Bank also outlines several other factors supporting Morocco’s economic resilience.
Industrial exports continue to benefit from the country’s ongoing economic diversification and deeper integration into global value chains.
Tourism remains another important pillar of growth, supported by Morocco’s political stability and growing appeal as a travel destination.
At the same time, investments in infrastructure, renewable energy, and industrial capacity are helping strengthen the country’s ability to withstand external shocks.
Despite these positive factors, the World Bank warns against excessive optimism.
Morocco remains a net importer of hydrocarbons and is still vulnerable to fluctuations in global energy markets.
Rising import costs and the possibility of slower external transfers could contribute to a wider current account deficit in 2026.
The report underlines the importance of continuing efforts to expand renewable energy production, improve energy efficiency, and develop infrastructure that reduces dependence on imported fossil fuels.
In other words, while phosphate and fertilizer exports provide a valuable economic buffer today, long-term resilience will depend on broader structural reforms and greater energy independence.