Gift Nifty Points to Weak Market Open Thursday

Mumbai, Aug 19: Gift Nifty futures suggest Indian equity benchmarks will open weak on Thursday. The Nifty 50 and Sensex will likely open at 9:15 am with a negative bias in early trades. Nifty’s near-month August 25 contract was trading 97.50 points or 0.4 per cent lower at 24,090 while the September 29 contract was down 97 points or 0.4 per cent at 24,197 in the latest trading session.  

Gift Nifty Intraday Analysis  

Gift Nifty today opened at 24,195 and rose to an intraday high of 24,221.5 before coming under sustained selling pressure. Prices fell sharply to a low of 24,068 before stabilising somewhat through the afternoon session. Gift Nifty was trading at 24,090 in the latest trade, down 97.5 points or 0.4 per cent.  

The sharp reversal from the day’s high of 24,221.5 suggests strong resistance has emerged in the 24,195-24,221 zone. On the lower side, support is placed at the day’s low of 24,068, with the next support seen at 24,020. With prices unable to reclaim the 24,150 mark through the latter half of Wednesday’s session, the Indian equity indices will likely open with a negative bias on Thursday.  

Iran War Live Updates  

The Iran-US standoff remained unresolved after the memorandum of understanding between the two sides lapsed on August 17 without a fresh deal, with President Trump saying no talks were currently underway with Tehran. The UAE said it was suspending all trade and financial dealings with Iran after accusing Tehran of firing ballistic missiles toward maritime navigation routes, a charge Iran has denied. Iran’s armed forces chief has separately warned Gulf states against assisting the US military, even as shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continues to run well below pre-war levels.  

Global Cues  

Asian markets slumped on Wednesday, led by a more than 5 per cent plunge in South Korea’s Kospi that triggered a sell-side sidecar, while chipmakers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix each fell over 7 per cent as a semiconductor sell-off deepened. MSCI’s Asia-Pacific equities benchmark slid around 2 per cent, with the regional rout coming amid escalating US-Iran tensions and elevated global bond yields. Wall Street had ended Tuesday’s session lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.2 per cent, the S&P 500 off 0.7 per cent and the Nasdaq Composite the biggest laggard, down 1.3 per cent, as rising Treasury yields weighed on technology stocks.  

Crude Oil Price  

Brent crude climbed toward $92 a barrel on Wednesday, extending gains for a fourth straight session as the US and Iran showed little sign of reaching an agreement to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping risks around the waterway persisted even as Washington maintained that the strait was open and mines had been cleared, with several vessels, including ones linked to the UAE and Saudi Arabia, reportedly attacked so far this month. Gulf producers, including Saudi Arabia, have begun routing crude cargoes from outside the chokepoint to keep exports flowing despite the disruption.  

Elevated crude prices remain a key risk for oil-importing nations like India, adding to the import bill, pressuring the rupee and worsening the inflation outlook. Any sudden overnight movement in Brent crude, driven by fresh developments on the Hormuz standoff, could invalidate the Gift Nifty-based signal ahead of Indian market open on Thursday.  

If the current macro and geopolitical conditions, particularly the Iran-US standoff over the Strait of Hormuz and the prevailing trend in crude oil prices, remain unchanged overnight, the Gift Nifty-based prediction for a weak opening in Sensex and Nifty on Thursday should hold true.  

Sources