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Home»Cryptocurrency»The Cost of Missing Out: Why Bitcoin Market Timing Fails
Cryptocurrency

The Cost of Missing Out: Why Bitcoin Market Timing Fails

By CharlotteOctober 6, 20262 Mins Read
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Source: Bitbo

However, most of the returns came from just a few days. Removing the top 5 days caused returns to fall to 95%, removing the top 10 days made returns dwindle to 27%, and removing the top 15 days led to an 11% loss.

Bitcoin $BTC 3-year return: 225%
Nasdaq 3-year return: 109%

Remove $BTC‘s 5 best trading days, and that return falls to 95%. Those days can’t be predicted, which is why consistent long-term exposure matters for an asset like Bitcoin.

Read more on The Stack:… pic.twitter.com/ee84IzwV1b

— Grayscale (@Grayscale) October 5, 2026

Quarterly returns and current price analysis

Coinpedia previously covered how Q4 is one of the best quarters in the history of Bitcoin, while also noting that some of these quarters closed in loss positions.

Many traders now anticipate a bullish Q4, but Bitcoin is facing clustered resistance between $84,000-$87,000, with more hoops to jump at the $88,000-$89,000 range.

At press time, $BTC was trading at $85,821, after slightly pulling back from the $86K hurdle.

The parting shot

Grayscale concludes by saying long-term investment is the best strategy for assets like Bitcoin, which can experience massive price swings in either direction.

Additionally, while the most profitable days are few and unpredictable, missing out on them vastly and negatively impacts yields. This last remark further builds on the long-term strategy that Grayscale advises.





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