Gold took two decades to build its ETF empire. Bitcoin is trying to do it in two years.
That is the core observation from Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Eric Balchunas, who argues that Bitcoin ETFs are on a trajectory that closely mirrors the arc of gold ETFs since their launch around 2004. The comparison is not just flattering for Bitcoin. It is also a warning label.
Balchunas points out that both Bitcoin and gold share a structural quirk that sets them apart from most investable assets: neither produces cash flows. That means price movement in both assets is almost entirely a function of investor sentiment.
The numbers tell a striking story
Gold ETFs like SPDR Gold Shares have been accumulating assets since roughly 2004, building to an AUM range of $160B to $235B over more than two decades. Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024 and have already pulled in over $38B in net inflows, with total estimated AUM approaching $120B.
Balchunas projects that if the current growth trajectory holds, Bitcoin ETFs could triple the AUM of gold ETFs within the next three to five years.
The engine driving that pace, according to Balchunas, is brokerage access. When Bitcoin ETFs trade on traditional platforms like any other ticker, the friction of managing private keys, seed phrases, and self-custody wallets simply disappears.
Gold’s history is not just a growth story
Gold ETFs did not go straight up for 22 years. The asset experienced roughly 40% price drawdowns at certain points, and during one particularly rough stretch, about one-third of gold ETF assets exited within six months.
Balchunas is not burying it. His framing is that Bitcoin ETFs will likely go through similar cycles of sharp gains followed by painful contractions, and that investors who understand the gold playbook will be better positioned to hold through those periods rather than capitulate at the bottom.
What makes the gold comparison particularly apt is the regulatory arc. Gold ETFs spent years in approval limbo before finally launching in the US, and their eventual approval opened the door to a much broader base of institutional capital. Bitcoin ETFs followed a nearly identical pattern: years of SEC rejections, a landmark court ruling, and then a January 2024 launch that brought spot Bitcoin exposure to every brokerage account in America almost overnight.
What this means for investors watching Bitcoin ETFs
The spot Bitcoin ETF market is already crowded, with products from BlackRock, Fidelity, and several other issuers competing for inflows. The dominance pattern in gold ETFs, where SPDR Gold Shares captured an outsized share of the market early and largely held it, may or may not repeat in Bitcoin.