Gold and silver have lost the momentum generated by their recent rebounds, but sellers have yet to secure the decisive breakdown they are looking for. Gold’s recovery stalled at 4202.87, while silver turned lower after reaching 63.25. The next move now appears to hinge on a market far removed from precious metals themselves: Brent crude. If oil establishes itself above $80, the inflation narrative that has dominated markets for months could quickly return to centre stage.
Events in the Middle East are moving in that direction. Fresh US strikes against Iranian targets followed attacks on commercial shipping in and around the Strait of Hormuz, while President Donald Trump declared the ceasefire effectively “over” and questioned whether further negotiations were worthwhile. The rhetoric was accompanied by concrete policy action after Washington withdrew the waiver allowing Iran to continue exporting oil. Tehran responded by branding the strikes a treaty violation and signalling it was prepared to respond to further military action. Taken together, the latest developments look less like another temporary dispute within a ceasefire framework and more like the first meaningful signs that the agreement itself may be starting to unravel.
For metals markets, however, the crucial issue is not whether tensions remain elevated, but whether they push oil high enough to change the inflation outlook. A sustained break above Brent’s $80 psychological level, reinforced by a move through 38.2% retracement of 98.99 to 70.14 at 81.16, would suggest investors are rebuilding a meaningful geopolitical premium into energy prices. That would increase the risk that the Federal Reserve will move closer towards rate hikes, strengthening the Dollar and maintaining upward pressure on real yields. In that environment, a decisive break below Gold’s $4000 area and a renewed slide in Silver towards $50 would become considerably more likely.
The charts continue to favor that bearish outcome. Gold remains comfortably inside its descending channel, with 4,202.87 marking the key resistance that bulls must overcome. Until then, a break below 3,942.23 remains the preferred scenario. Firm break of 3,942.23 will resume the larger down trend. Next target will be 50% retracement of 1,614.60 (2022 low) to 5,598.38 (2026 high) at 3,606.49.
Silver is following the same script. The failure at 63.25 reinforces the integrity of the near-term falling channel, while 55.59 remains the key support to watch. A decisive break there would confirm the broader downtrend has resumed and expose the next major downside objective 76.4% retracement of 28.28 to 121.83 at 50.26.
