Investing.com — JPMorgan has trimmed its 2026 price forecasts, citing a slowdown in near-term demand momentum, though the bank maintained its base case bullish outlook and still sees gold rising to $6,000 per troy ounce by year-end.
The bank cut its 2026 gold average price forecast to $5,243 per ounce from $5,708 previously, reflecting a near-term cooling in investor interest and subdued positioning.
Gold is currently stuck between its 200-day moving average around $4,340/oz and the 50-day moving average at $4,730/oz, with futures open interest and ETF flows remaining light.
“Gold is on the back burner for most investors at the moment,” the bank’s analysts led by Gregory Shearer wrote, pointing to growing concerns that the Federal Reserve may need to respond to energy-driven inflation with interest rate hikes as a key factor capping conviction in the near-term.
Despite the forecast cut, JPMorgan emphasized that the pullback represents a pause rather than a structural shift. The analysts said their bullish long-term case — built on fiscal and debasement risks, geopolitical fracturing, and concerns around U.S. policy unpredictability — remains intact, but is “on hold until more clarity arrives around a resolution of the Iran conflict.”
The key catalyst the bank is watching is a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which its oil analysts expect in June. A clear resolution, in analysts’ view, would erode inflation tail risks and begin to unwind the recent strength in the U.S. dollar and real yields, sparking a recovery rally in gold toward $4,900–$5,100/oz technical resistance.
From there, the bank expects investors who have de-risked their gold holdings to begin rotating back in, with demand re-accelerating in the second half of the year.
JPMorgan lowered its central bank purchase estimate to 640 tonnes for 2026, down from 800 tonnes previously, after net reported purchases fell to just 16 tonnes in the first quarter amid a surge in sales. Total purchases including unreported buying still came in at 244 tonnes in the quarter, according to World Gold Council and Metals Focus estimates.
The Wall Street firm also reduced its ETF inflow forecast to around 400 tonnes for the full year, from 580 tonnes previously, though it noted that global ETF holdings are still up 108 tonnes year-to-date.
The most significant risk to the outlook, the analysts said, would be a scenario where strong U.S. employment and accelerating inflation push the Fed into a sustained hiking cycle, which could trigger persistent outflows from Western gold ETFs.