Veteran trader Peter Brandt is eyeing a move from Bitcoin into gold, citing a technical breakout in the XAU/BTC ratio. His call has reignited the store-of-value debate, drawing sharp pushback from analysts.
Here is what his chart shows, why the timing matters, and how other analysts read the same setup.
What the XAU/BTC Ratio Breakout Actually Means
The XAU/BTC ratio measures how many BTC one ounce of gold can buy. A rising ratio means gold is outperforming Bitcoin, while a falling ratio signals the opposite across the market cycle.
Brandt, a respected chartist with over 50 years of experience, sees the ratio turning. His monthly chart shows the pair near 0.067, curling upward from a multi-year base.
Furthermore, he believes gold is poised to gain substantially as the ratio breaks out of a falling channel.
The price math explains the timing. Bitcoin now trades around $62,658, roughly 50% below its October 2025 peak of $126,000.
Meanwhile, gold hovers near $4,175 despite a 25% retracement from its record above $5,600, according to TradingView data.
His view rests on classical technical analysis, not ideology. Brandt has stayed cautious on Bitcoin throughout 2026.
Previously, he outlined potential lows in the $40,000 to $60,000 range before any move toward a much higher $250,000 target.
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Why Not Everyone Agrees With the Rotation Trade
Not all market participants accept Brandt’s rotation thesis. Michael Saylor argues Bitcoin’s underperformance stems from liquidity diversion toward AI infrastructure, not a shift into gold. On-chain data supports a more nuanced read of the market.
While ETF outflows made headlines, long-term holders absorbed supply. In fact, they added roughly 125,000 BTC during the dip. As a result, the pattern suggests accumulation by strong hands rather than broad distribution across the market.
Analyst Michaël van de Poppe pushed back directly on the chart. “Until Bitcoin doubles, then this entire chart is worthless,” he wrote. His comment underscores the view that Bitcoin’s growth potential could quickly invalidate any relative weakness against gold.
Trader Pablo Heman offered a more balanced take, holding both assets. He sees near-term upside for Bitcoin if it holds above $55,000. However, he stays long-term bullish on gold, citing China’s push to challenge the LBMA pricing structure.
“Wow, Short Bitcoin Long Gold?! What a ballsy call! I hold both, and think BTC at least has a big bounce coming for next few months. As long as BTC stays above 55K it should have a big bounce. But Gold (and silver) I am bullish on for the Long term, like the next 5-10 year, maybe even more! China will now take on LBMA (London) and try to set the spot good price in HK. Most people probably don’t know how much this will change the world of commodities!,” Herman said on X.
For now, the XAU/BTC ratio serves as the clearest scoreboard. A sustained breakout would bolster the gold-over-Bitcoin narrative. However, a rejection could signal Bitcoin regaining momentum, especially as fresh weekly data shows crypto outperforming both gold and equities.
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