The UK’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has fallen steadily. In 2010, women in England and Wales had an average of 1.9 children. By 2024 this had dropped to around 1.4 – the lowest level on record.
This reflects long-running social and economic shifts, including delayed parenthood, longer participation in education, affordability pressures and wider financial uncertainty. In 2024 the average age of mothers and fathers reached 31 and 34, respectively, continuing the trend towards later family formation.
Birth numbers today shape school rolls for the next 15 years. The number of children in reception classes depends on births four to five years earlier, and secondary school numbers depend on births roughly a decade earlier. Any miss-estimate of future births therefore has a long shadow across the education system.
National pupil forecasts produced by the Department for Education are based on current Office for National Statistics assumptions which assume that the birth rate will stabilise. This is despite past forecasts consistently proving too optimistic.
On this basis the number of children aged 0–15 in the UK is projected to fall by around 797,000 (6.4%) by mid-2032, from 12.4 million to 11.6 million, before remaining broadly flat to 2047.
However, if the decline continues, as seen in many comparable countries, the number of children could fall further and faster than these projections suggest. Demand for school places would then be lower than currently planned, with implications for how education infrastructure is delivered alongside new housing.