Labour Market Outlook report
Winter 2023-24 overview
This quarter, we see the tide turning on pay. For over a year, expected basic pay awards for the upcoming 12 months have been at 5%. This quarter, they have fallen to 4%, matching the level of CPI inflation reported in the 12 months to December 2023.
Decreasing staff levels is higher on the agenda in 2024, in response to the higher wage costs experienced over the past couple of years. This is evident in both the public and private sector.
Labour market tightness is meanwhile reducing. Our data show there will be further easing in the coming months, as fewer employers are expecting significant problems filling vacancies going forward.
Read on for our latest labour market data and analysis on employers’ recruitment, redundancy and pay intentions this winter.