Mapfre Economics, Mapfre’s research arm, forecasts global economic growth of 3.0% this year and 3.1% next year, with inflation projected at 3.8% and 3.1%, respectively, according to its report ‘Economic and Industry Outlook 2026: Perspectives for the Second Half of the Year.’
During the first half of 2026, the global economy maintained a path of moderate growth, with inflation continuing to ease, albeit unevenly, in an environment marked by heightened risks and uncertainty. Macroeconomic stability appears to depend more on the effective management of existing risks than on a fully consolidated economic equilibrium.
The U.S. economy is expected to grow by 2.1% this year and 2.0% next year. The main source of vulnerability remains the fiscal outlook. The public deficit remains at very high levels (around 7–7.5% of GDP over the coming years), while public debt has already exceeded 120% of GDP and is projected to approach 140% by 2030. This trajectory points to an unsustainable fiscal path over the medium term, which could increase borrowing costs, generate volatility in debt markets, and reduce the government’s ability to respond to future shocks.
The Eurozone is expected to grow by 1.0% in 2026 and 1.2% in 2027. The improvement in EU GDP is weak but positive, driven mainly by domestic demand and a resilient labour market.
In Latin America, the region is expected to grow by 1.9% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027. Meanwhile, the Asia-Pacific region is forecast to expand by 4.6% in 2026 and 4.5% in 2027. China’s economy is expected to grow by 4.5% this year, remaining below the 5% mark.
Impact on the insurance industry
The insurance industry enters the 2026–2027 period from a position of relative strength, supported by resilient global economic growth and financial conditions that continue to underpin the generation of recurring earnings. However, an environment characterized by heightened geopolitical uncertainty, more volatile inflation, and higher interest rates for longer is likely to increase the dispersion of results across markets, products, and companies.
The ability to manage technical, financial, and operational risks in an integrated manner becomes one of the main differential factors to preserve the profitability and growth of the insurance industry.
Thus, Non-Life premiums are projected to grow by 5.7% this year and 6.0% in 2027, while Life premiums are expected to increase by 5.9% in 2026 and 6.8% in 2027