SINGAPORE, April 24, 2026 – The Vietnamese economy has demonstrated notable resilience despite continuing global uncertainties. Growth has been underpinned by strong export-oriented manufacturing, sustained foreign direct investment, and firm domestic demand. Credit growth has been brisk and there are incipient signs of risk accumulation. Safeguarding macro-financial stability will require a prudent, well-calibrated policy mix that avoids procyclicality while managing emerging macro‑financial pressures.
This preliminary assessment follows AMRO’s Annual Consultation Visit to Vietnam from March 23 to April 3, 2026. The mission was led by Deputy Group Head and Principal Economist Anthony Tan. AMRO Director/CEO Yasuto Watanabe and Chief Economist Dong He participated in the policy discussions and met with the State Bank of Vietnam Governor Nguyen Thi Hong and Deputy Minister of Finance Tran Quoc Phuong.
Economic developments and outlook
“After an exceptionally strong growth performance last year, Vietnam’s economic growth is expected to soften to around 7.2 percent in 2026−27, as the tailwinds from last year’s robust external demand gradually fade,” said Mr. Tan. “Domestic demand is expected to remain resilient, underpinned by continued policy support, including the extended VAT rate reductions and planned public infrastructure spending.”
Inflation has remained contained so far, staying below the government’s operating ceiling of 4.5 percent. However, escalating tensions in the Middle East since February 28 have driven up global energy prices, prompting a sharp increase in retail fuel prices in Vietnam in early March. Continued strong credit growth and rising public expenditures are also expected to add to price pressures.
On the external position, Vietnam’s current account surplus remained at a record high of 6.7 percent of GDP in 2025, supported by resilient goods exports and strong remittances. At the same time, there were sizable capital outflows.
Budget performance in 2025 reflected stronger-than-targeted revenue collection alongside sluggish expenditure execution. Revenue outperformance was mainly driven by capital inflows from accelerated land-use transactions following the enactment of key land and housing laws. Meanwhile, expenditures increased moderately compared to the previous year. The fiscal position is expected to strengthen, with a small surplus of 0.9 percent of GDP in 2025.
Risks, vulnerabilities and challenges
Vietnam confronts an increasingly challenging risk environment. The surge in energy prices has emerged as the most salient external shock, overshadowing tariff-related uncertainties. Prolonged high energy prices could materially impact growth by driving inflationary pressures and dampening domestic demand.
While the growth model continues to deliver strong performance, the country is increasingly exposed to growing trade tensions, particularly as supply chains face heightened scrutiny from the US and other major markets. Rapid credit expansion has also increased financial vulnerabilities and sensitivity to shifts in liquidity and funding conditions.
The growing linkage between capital flows, liquidity, and domestic financial cycles has heightened the economy’s exposure to external shocks, intensifying the trade‑off between sustaining growth and preserving macro‑financial stability.
Policy priorities
Vietnam’s near-term macro‑financial conditions call for a prudent, well-calibrated policy mix to stabilize growth while containing emerging risks. Fiscal policy should prioritize provision of targeted support to vulnerable sectors amid rising energy prices over broad-based expansion, with emphasis on effective spending that does not exacerbate macro‑financial pressures.
Strong growth alongside emerging financial imbalances points to the need for an unwinding of accommodative monetary policy, while closely monitoring liquidity and foreign exchange conditions. Financial regulators and supervisors should exercise stronger macroprudential oversight particularly on real estate and household lending.
Over the longer term, the policy agenda should focus on three inter-related priorities:
- Accelerating domestic industrial upgrading by deepening FDI−local linkages and raising further domestic value-added content.
- Strengthening policy frameworks in tandem with growing economic complexity, including modernizing monetary and financial policy frameworks, revenue mobilization, and public investment management.
- Advancing financial sector and capital market reforms to create credible domestic investment opportunities, improve capital allocation, and reduce incentives for speculative capital outflows.
The AMRO team thanks the Vietnamese authorities and participating organizations for their candid discussions and kind hospitality during the mission.
About AMRO
AMRO is an international organization established to support macroeconomic resilience and financial stability of the ASEAN+3 region, comprising members of the Association of Southeast Asia Nations (ASEAN) and China; Hong Kong, China; Japan; and Korea. AMRO’s mandate is to conduct macroeconomic surveillance, support regional financial arrangements, and provide technical assistance to the members. AMRO also serves as a regional knowledge hub and provides support to ASEAN+3 financial cooperation.