The situation in the Middle East remains the main story, as it has been in markets all week long. The optimists are looking for signs of de-escalation but so far, the actions on the ground continue to tell the story that the military conflict is carrying on.
The latest developments since overnight trading did at least reveal a couple of things. The main one being that Trump doesn’t seem like he has the appetite for much higher oil prices. That as the US administration might even look to intervene in oil market futures just to keep prices down.
For now though, the oil market remains anxious. Despite the mix of headlines all through the week, we’re seeing traders slowly grow more worried about the US-Iran conflict and its impact on energy security in the region. Right now, WTI crude oil is bordering on finding that firm break above $80:
WTI crude oil weekly chart ($/bbl)
We may be down slightly from the highs overnight of over $82. However, it is not to say that the balance of the overall risk mood has improved that much to side with de-escalation talks just yet.
The $80 mark is a key line in the sand now. A push above that suggests that traders are growing ever more nervous about the Middle East conflict. Keep below and it leans more towards simmering tensions with hopes that things will settle down soon enough.
If traders get around the idea of holding above $80, I’m afraid we might get a rush to much higher levels and even see talks about triple digits quite quickly. But again, the overall situation remains fluid and we are subject to the headline developments at this stage.
As we look to the weekend, there are some thing to be wary about. The first being that Gulf nations might be hitting a bit of a pain threshold soon enough. And that could see them pressure the US into taking a step back on the conflict. Yes, Iran is the common enemy in all of this. However, the chaos and constant energy disruptions might be too difficult to keep ignoring if it carries on for weeks on end.
Adding to that is Trump also putting it out there that Iran wants to talk. It might be something or it might be nothing. But the point is, he has put the conversation out for the world to see. For now, he’s saying that it is “too little too late”. However, we all know Trump and when you combine the things he detest the most i.e. high oil prices, falling stock market, and Fed rate cut odds diminishing, he could also be nearing the infamous TACO threshold.